{"event":"oil-prices-2026-tracker","title":"Oil prices 2026 tracker: dated moves and their causes","state":"developing","updated":"2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z","entries":[{"id":"1gagfga","at":"2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z","title":"IEA members back faster stock releases, prioritising diesel","status":"confirmed","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-iea-oct-7","n":30,"url":"https://www.iea.org/news/statement-by-iea-executive-director-on-meeting-of-iea-member-governments-on-7-october-2026","publisher":"International Energy Agency","short":"International Energy Agency"}]},{"id":"cs9rye","at":"2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z","title":"EIA raises its Q4 Brent forecast to $105","status":"confirmed","body":"Brent spot was $125.44 and WTI $96.24 that day.","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-eia-oct-forecast","n":11,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"},{"id":"markets-oil-brent-2026-10-06","n":5,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=D","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"}]},{"id":"9re3uo","at":"2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z","title":"US gasoline averages $4.354 a gallon, diesel $6.199","status":"confirmed","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-retail-2026-10-05","n":10,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"}]},{"id":"7wbfco","at":"2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z","title":"OPEC+ holds November targets steady","status":"confirmed","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-opec-plus-oct-4","n":7,"url":"https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/616-4-october-2026.html","publisher":"OPEC","short":"OPEC"},{"id":"markets-oil-jmmc-attacks","n":48,"url":"https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/1870612-2-august-2026.html","publisher":"OPEC","short":"OPEC"}]},{"id":"1cnmjg7","at":"2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z","title":"G7 agrees 100-million-barrel release; Brent spot at $135.51","status":"confirmed","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-g7-100mb","n":8,"url":"https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/statements/2026/10/02/g7-leaders-statement-global-energy-security-and-market-stability","publisher":"Prime Minister of Canada (G7 leaders' statement)","short":"Prime Minister of Canada"},{"id":"markets-oil-brent-2026-10-02","n":47,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=D","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"}]},{"id":"1peto19","at":"2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z","title":"US announces 40-million-barrel SPR exchange","status":"confirmed","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-spr-exchange","n":26,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"}]},{"id":"cndov2","at":"2026-09-15T00:00:00.000Z","title":"East-West pipeline attacks lift Brent spot to $131","status":"confirmed","body":"The pipeline partially resumed flows as of 22 September. Brent averaged $114 in September, and tanker rates hit records.","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-east-west-pipeline","n":22,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"},{"id":"markets-oil-sep-high-average","n":23,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"},{"id":"markets-oil-tanker-rates","n":46,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"}]},{"id":"v9zpw","at":"2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z","title":"IEA cuts 2026 demand forecast; diesel tops $200 per barrel in the US","status":"confirmed","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-iea-sep-demand","n":6,"url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2026","publisher":"International Energy Agency","short":"International Energy Agency"},{"id":"markets-oil-iea-diesel-200","n":24,"url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2026","publisher":"International Energy Agency","short":"International Energy Agency"},{"id":"markets-oil-iea-inventories-507","n":29,"url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2026","publisher":"International Energy Agency","short":"International Energy Agency"},{"id":"markets-oil-iea-dated-sep-9","n":45,"url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2026","publisher":"International Energy Agency","short":"International Energy Agency"}]},{"id":"84ctef","at":"2026-08-11T00:00:00.000Z","title":"EIA raises shut-in estimates as Hormuz constraints persist","status":"confirmed","body":"Brent averaged $91 in August, $7 above July.","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-aug-constraints","n":21,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/aug26.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"},{"id":"markets-oil-aug-average","n":44,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/sep26.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"}]},{"id":"1vnc55l","at":"2026-07-05T00:00:00.000Z","title":"Seven OPEC+ countries agree 188,000 b/d August increase","status":"confirmed","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-opec-plus-jul-5","n":43,"url":"https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/1835609-5-july-2026.html","publisher":"OPEC","short":"OPEC"}]},{"id":"1e42l2p","at":"2026-07-02T00:00:00.000Z","title":"Brent falls to $68.53, below its pre-war level","status":"confirmed","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-brent-2026-07-02","n":4,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=D","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"}]},{"id":"15447nw","at":"2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z","title":"US and Iran sign memorandum to end the conflict","status":"confirmed","body":"Brent averaged $85 in June, down $32 from April.","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-mou-june-18","n":19,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jul26.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"},{"id":"markets-oil-june-average","n":20,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jul26.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"}]},{"id":"1k7jovd","at":"2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","title":"Shut-ins peak; prices fall on demand loss and deal reports","status":"confirmed","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-may-peak-shutins","n":15,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"},{"id":"markets-oil-may-decline","n":18,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jun26.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"},{"id":"markets-oil-demand-destruction-jun","n":42,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jun26.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"}]},{"id":"b048r1","at":"2026-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","title":"UAE leaves OPEC","status":"confirmed","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-uae-leaves-opec","n":41,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/may26.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"}]},{"id":"1xy6pqj","at":"2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","title":"Temporary ceasefire eases prices; April shut-ins reach 10.5 million b/d","status":"confirmed","body":"US net exports of crude and products hit a record 5.8 million b/d in April.","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-april-ceasefire","n":38,"url":"https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/strait-of-hormuz-disruption-sends-oil-prices-surging","publisher":"World Bank","short":"World Bank"},{"id":"markets-oil-april-shutins","n":39,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/may26.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"},{"id":"markets-oil-us-net-exports-record","n":40,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jun26.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"}]},{"id":"13jz1ag","at":"2026-04-07T00:00:00.000Z","title":"Brent spot hits 2026 high of $138","status":"confirmed","body":"Dated Brent traded more than $25 above front-month futures in early April as buyers scrambled for prompt cargoes.","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-april-peak","n":3,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/may26.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"},{"id":"markets-oil-dated-brent-premium","n":9,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67544","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"}]},{"id":"1hhpam4","at":"2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z","title":"Brent posts its largest monthly rise on record","status":"confirmed","body":"Brent averaged $103 in March; EIA estimated 7.5 million b/d of Gulf crude was shut in. The Brent-WTI spread averaged $12.","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-march-record-rise","n":16,"url":"https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/strait-of-hormuz-disruption-sends-oil-prices-surging","publisher":"World Bank","short":"World Bank"},{"id":"markets-oil-march-avg-shutins","n":36,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press586.php","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"},{"id":"markets-oil-brent-wti-spread-march","n":37,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/apr26.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"}]},{"id":"1itzyva","at":"2026-03-11T00:00:00.000Z","title":"IEA members agree record 400-million-barrel stock release","status":"confirmed","body":"The IEA said Hormuz exports were below 10% of pre-conflict levels.","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-iea-400mb","n":17,"url":"https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict","publisher":"International Energy Agency","short":"International Energy Agency"},{"id":"markets-oil-hormuz-exports-10pct","n":14,"url":"https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict","publisher":"International Energy Agency","short":"International Energy Agency"}]},{"id":"5fx2mz","at":"2026-03-09T00:00:00.000Z","title":"Brent settles at $94, up about 50% on the year","status":"confirmed","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-brent-mar-9","n":35,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/mar26.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"}]},{"id":"1md14c8","at":"2026-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","title":"Eight OPEC+ countries agree a 206,000 b/d April increase","status":"confirmed","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-opec-plus-mar-1","n":34,"url":"https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/593-1-march-2026.html","publisher":"OPEC","short":"OPEC"}]},{"id":"1j1du54","at":"2026-02-28T00:00:00.000Z","title":"War begins; Hormuz traffic collapses","status":"confirmed","body":"The Dallas Fed estimated a full halt to Gulf exports would remove close to 20% of global oil supply.","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-conflict-start","n":1,"url":"https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict","publisher":"International Energy Agency","short":"International Energy Agency"},{"id":"markets-oil-hormuz-share","n":28,"url":"https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict","publisher":"International Energy Agency","short":"International Energy Agency"},{"id":"markets-oil-hormuz-20pct-supply","n":33,"url":"https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0320","publisher":"Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas","short":"Federal Reserve Bank…"}]},{"id":"2lngj7","at":"2026-02-27T00:00:00.000Z","title":"Last pre-war close, Brent at $71.32","status":"confirmed","body":"In February EIA had forecast a 2026 Brent average of $58, expecting supply to exceed demand.","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-brent-2026-02-27","n":2,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=D","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"},{"id":"markets-oil-feb-steo-baseline","n":13,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/feb26.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"}]},{"id":"1na61ci","at":"2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z","title":"Brent averages $67 in January on weather and Iran tensions","status":"confirmed","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-jan-2026-average","n":32,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/feb26.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"}]},{"id":"1p0jnl4","at":"2026-01-02T00:00:00.000Z","title":"Brent starts the year near $62","status":"confirmed","body":"EIA spot data show Brent at $61.98 and WTI at $57.21 per barrel.","cites":[{"id":"markets-oil-brent-2026-01-02","n":31,"url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=D","publisher":"U.S. Energy Information Administration","short":"U.S. Energy Information…"}]}]}