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    Oil prices in 2026: a crash course

    As of 6 October 2026, the latest day in EIA's daily data, Brent crude traded at $125.44 per barrel on the spot market and WTI at $96.24.[1] Prices have been driven by the war that began on 28 February and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a quarter of seaborne oil trade passed in 2025.[2][3] EIA forecasts that Brent will average $105 in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $84 in 2027.[4]

    Editor reviewedStrict sourcingUpdated Markets and tradingWorld affairsTech policy

    Oil prices swung widely in 2026. The World Bank called Brent’s rise in March its largest monthly increase on record.[5] This crash course explains where prices stand, why they moved, and how to read the numbers you see quoted. It is general information, not financial advice.

    Where prices stand

    “The oil price” usually means one of two benchmarks: Brent, the main global benchmark, or WTI, the US benchmark.[6][7] On 6 October 2026, the latest day in EIA’s daily data, Brent was $125.44 a barrel and WTI was $96.24.[1] At the start of the year Brent was about $62.[8] In the US, regular gasoline averaged $4.354 a gallon on 5 October, $1.23 more than a year earlier.[9]

    The EIA series quoted here is a spot assessment. In 2026 spot Brent has at times traded far above ICE futures. Dated Brent was more than $25 above front-month futures in early April, and in September the IEA quoted futures at $105 while physical benchmarks were significantly higher.[10][11] Brent averaged $69 in 2025. EIA now forecasts $96 for 2026, against $58 in its pre-war February outlook.[12][13][14]

    Why prices surged

    On 28 February 2026 a war began involving Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other. Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea lane out of the Persian Gulf, nearly stopped.[2][15] About 20 million barrels a day passed through it in 2025.[3] Brent reached $138 on 7 April.[16] It fell after a US-Iran agreement in June and rose again when attacks on shipping and pipelines resumed.[17][18][19]

    EIA estimates Gulf crude shut-ins peaked at 10.9 million barrels per day in May and were still 4.8 million in September.[20] The IEA estimates observed global inventories fell 507 million barrels from February to August.[21] Diesel is now the tightest market. The IEA said US diesel passed $200 per barrel in early September, and EIA says diesel tightness is pulling crude prices up.[22][23] Policy responses include a 400-million-barrel IEA release in March and a further 100 million barrels agreed by the G7 on 2 October.[24][25]

    How to use this course

    The course runs in this order. Start with the benchmarks, Brent and WTI.[6] Then read what moves oil prices, which also covers why pump prices lag crude, and the producer group OPEC+.[26][27] The oil prices 2026 tracker gives the dated record of moves and causes. The 2026 outlook analysis compares the forecasts of EIA, the IEA and OPEC.[28]

    Oil and the wider economy

    A Dallas Fed model published in March 2026 estimated that a closure removing close to 20% of global oil supply for the second quarter would lower annualised global GDP growth by 2.9 percentage points in that quarter. That is a model scenario, not a measured outcome.[29] For interest rates and stock markets, see our coverage of the Federal Reserve.

    Questions readers ask

    What is the price of oil today?

    ContentLora reports dated prices, not live quotes. In EIA's daily data, the latest available as of 10 October 2026, Brent spot was $125.44 per barrel and WTI spot was $96.24 on 6 October 2026.[1]

    Why are oil prices so high in 2026?

    The war that began on 28 February 2026 impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about 20 million barrels per day in 2025. Gulf producers shut in up to 10.9 million barrels per day of crude, and global inventories fell sharply.[2][3][20][21]

    What is the difference between Brent and WTI?

    Brent is a North Sea-based benchmark and the most widely used global benchmark. WTI is a US crude priced at Cushing, Oklahoma. In 2026 Brent rose more than WTI because it is more exposed to shipping costs and lost Middle East supply to Asia.[7][30][31]

    How much is gasoline in the US?

    EIA's weekly survey put the US average for regular gasoline at $4.354 per gallon and diesel at $6.199 on 5 October 2026.[9]

    Will oil prices go down?

    ContentLora does not forecast prices. EIA's October 2026 outlook expects Brent to fall from an average of $105 in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $84 in 2027 as Gulf production recovers and inventories rebuild, but EIA says its forecast depends heavily on the Strait of Hormuz.[4][32][33]

    Sources

    Each numbered claim is a statement we checked against the sources listed with it. Status shows how well established it is.

    1. [1]

      As of 6 October 2026, the latest day in EIA's daily data, the Brent spot price was $125.44 per barrel and the WTI spot price was $96.24. confirmedas of 2026-10-06

    2. [2]

      The Middle East conflict that began on 28 February 2026, involving Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other, impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. confirmedas of 2026-03-20

    3. [3]

      An average of 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and products, about 25% of world seaborne oil trade, transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025. confirmedas of 2026-03-11

    4. [4]

      EIA's October 2026 outlook forecasts Brent will average $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, $14 higher than its September forecast, and $84 in 2027. confirmedas of 2026-10-06· forecast

    5. [5]

      The World Bank said Brent rose about 65% ($46 per barrel) by the end of March 2026, its largest monthly rise on record, and called the Hormuz closure the largest oil market disruption in history. confirmedas of 2026-03-31

    6. [6]

      EIA describes Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Dubai/Oman as three of the most significant benchmarks in global crude oil markets. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    7. [7]

      EIA calls Brent the most widely used global crude oil benchmark, used to price light, sweet crude in Europe, the Mediterranean, Africa, Australia and parts of Asia. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    8. [8]

      The Brent spot price was $61.98 per barrel on 2 January 2026, and the WTI spot price was $57.21. confirmedas of 2026-01-02

    9. [9]

      As of 5 October 2026 the US average retail price of regular gasoline was $4.354 per gallon, down 11.1 cents from a week earlier and $1.23 above a year earlier, and on-highway diesel was $6.199. confirmedas of 2026-10-05

      • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update · U.S. Energy Information Administration · 2026-10-06 · U.S. Regular Gasoline Prices and U.S. On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices tables, 10/05/26 (retrieved 2026-10-10)
    10. [10]

      In early April 2026 the Dated Brent spot price rose to a premium of more than $25 per barrel over the front-month Brent futures contract, which EIA attributed to extreme short-term tightness after the Strait of Hormuz closure. confirmedas of 2026-04-24

    11. [11]

      In its September 2026 report the IEA said ICE Brent futures traded at $105 per barrel, 45% above pre-war levels, while physical benchmarks were significantly higher. confirmedas of 2026-09-11

    12. [12]

      Brent averaged $69 per barrel in 2025, according to EIA. confirmedas of 2026-10-06

    13. [13]

      EIA's October 2026 outlook forecasts annual averages of $96 per barrel for Brent and $88 for WTI in 2026, and $84 for Brent and $80 for WTI in 2027. confirmedas of 2026-10-06· forecast

    14. [14]

      In its February 2026 outlook, before the Middle East conflict, EIA forecast Brent would average $58 per barrel in 2026 and $53 in 2027 as global production exceeded demand. confirmedas of 2026-02-28· forecast

    15. [15]

      On 11 March 2026 the IEA said crude and product exports through the Strait of Hormuz were below 10% of pre-conflict levels, forcing producers to shut in output. confirmedas of 2026-03-11

    16. [16]

      Brent reached $138 per barrel on 7 April 2026, its 2026 high to date, and averaged $117 in April as the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz tightened supply. confirmedas of 2026-04-30

    17. [17]

      On 18 June 2026 the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the conflict and open the Strait of Hormuz. confirmedas of 2026-07-31

    18. [18]

      The Brent spot price fell to $68.53 per barrel on 2 July 2026, below its pre-war level of late February. confirmedas of 2026-07-02

    19. [19]

      Attacks in September 2026 on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which EIA estimated had carried more than 5 million barrels per day of exports via Yanbu, temporarily halted flows; the pipeline partially resumed flows as of 22 September. confirmedas of 2026-10-06

    20. [20]

      EIA estimates Middle East crude production shut-ins peaked at 10.9 million barrels per day in May 2026, fell to 5.8 million in August and 4.8 million in September. confirmedas of 2026-10-06

    21. [21]

      The IEA estimated global observed oil inventories fell by 507 million barrels from February to August 2026, an average draw of 2.8 million barrels per day. confirmedas of 2026-09-11

    22. [22]

      The IEA said US diesel prices passed $200 per barrel in early September 2026, 94% above pre-war levels, and that tightness was most acute in refined products. confirmedas of 2026-09-11

    23. [23]

      EIA says extreme tightness in diesel markets adds upward pressure on crude prices because refiners need more crude to meet diesel demand. confirmedas of 2026-10-06

    24. [24]

      On 11 March 2026 the IEA's 32 member countries agreed to make 400 million barrels of emergency oil stocks available, the largest release in the agency's history and its sixth collective action. confirmedas of 2026-03-11

    25. [25]

      On 2 October 2026 G7 leaders agreed a coordinated release through the IEA of 100 million barrels over four months, including a frontloaded diesel release in the first 20 days, and coordinated refinery maintenance. confirmedas of 2026-10-02

    26. [26]

      EIA says crude oil prices are driven by global supply and demand, with economic growth one of the biggest factors affecting demand, and describes oil markets as essentially a global auction. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    27. [27]

      OPEC lists the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (the group known as OPEC+) as the OPEC members plus Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, South Sudan and Sudan. confirmedas of 2025-12-31

    28. [28]

      The IEF put 2026 demand at 105.8 million barrels per day under OPEC, 102.6 million under EIA and 102.4 million under the IEA, a 3.4 million barrel-per-day gap, with 2027 levels ranging from 105.0 to 108.2 million. confirmedas of 2026-09-14· forecast

    29. [29]

      A Dallas Fed model published in March 2026 estimated that a Hormuz closure removing close to 20% of global oil supply during the second quarter of 2026 would raise WTI to an average of $98 per barrel and lower annualised global real GDP growth by 2.9 percentage points in that quarter. confirmedas of 2026-03-20· forecast

    30. [30]

      WTI is a light, sweet US crude priced at the trading hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, and is the benchmark for other US crudes and for imports from Canada, Mexico and South America. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    31. [31]

      The Brent-WTI spread averaged $12 per barrel in March 2026 because Brent was more exposed to higher shipping costs and reduced Middle East flows to Asia. confirmedas of 2026-04-07

    32. [32]

      EIA assumes Middle East shut-ins average 4.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026 and that convoys through Hormuz and export workarounds gradually raise output; it expects most Middle East production to return to pre-conflict levels by the end of the second quarter of 2027, with Brent falling to $87 per barrel in 2Q27 and $74 in 4Q27 as inventories rebuild, but warns of more short-term volatility than its forecast shows. confirmedas of 2026-10-06· forecast

    33. [33]

      EIA's administrator said in April 2026 that its petroleum forecasts depend on the duration of the Hormuz closure, estimated production outages and how reopening unfolds. confirmedas of 2026-04-07

    Revision history (1)
    1. Page created.

    Created Oct 10, 2026. Last reviewed by an editor on Oct 10, 2026. Next scheduled review: Nov 10, 2026.

    Cite this page

    "Oil prices in 2026: a crash course." ContentLora, updated Oct 10, 2026. https://contentlora.com/explain/oil-prices

    Spotted an error? Suggest a correction or emailcorrections@contentlora.com.

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