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    Fed interest rate decisions 2026: every FOMC meeting tracked

    The Fed held its policy rate at 3.50-3.75% at its first five meetings of 2026, then raised it by a quarter point to 3.75-4.00% on September 16, its first increase since 2023.[1][2][3] Most officials expected another increase by the end of 2026, and the next meetings are October 27-28 and December 8-9.[4][5]

    Editor reviewedStrict sourcingUpdated Markets and tradingTech policy

    What we know

    • The federal funds target range has been 3.75-4.00% since September 17, 2026[2]
    • The September hike was the first since July 2023[3]
    • The median official projected a 4.1% rate at end-2026, implying one more quarter-point hike[19]
    • 16 of 18 officials projected at least one more hike in 2026[20]
    • PCE inflation was 3.4% and core PCE 3.0% in the year to August 2026[13]
    • Unemployment was 4.2% in September 2026, with 29,000 jobs added[15]

    What we don't know yet

    • Whether the FOMC raises rates again at its October 27-28 meeting or waits until December 8-9
    • How many more increases the Committee will make in this cycle, and when it would stop
    • How the Middle East conflict and energy prices will evolve, and how much of the energy shock passes into core inflation
    • Whether the AI investment boom keeps demand ahead of supply, as some officials fear
    Story status

    Story status

    State
    developing
    Started
    2026-01-28
    Timeline entries
    14
    Last entry

    Timeline data (JSON)

    The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady for most of 2026 and then raised it on September 16 for the first time since July 2023.[2][3] This tracker records each fomc decision from the Fed’s own statements, with vote counts and dissents, and will be updated after each meeting. It is not financial advice.

    Decisions at a glance

    MeetingDecisionTarget range afterVote
    Jan 27-28Hold3.50-3.75%10-2 (two for a cut)
    Mar 17-18Hold3.50-3.75%11-1 (one for a cut)
    Apr 28-29Hold3.50-3.75%8-4 (one for a cut, three against easing bias)
    Jun 16-17Hold3.50-3.75%12-0
    Jul 28-29Hold3.50-3.75%9-3 (three for a hike)
    Sep 15-16Raise 0.25 pt3.75-4.00%12-0
    Oct 27-28Pending
    Dec 8-9Pending

    Sources for each row: January,[6] March,[7] April,[8] June,[9] July,[1] September,[2] and the meeting calendar.[5]

    How the year unfolded

    The Fed entered 2026 after cutting rates by 0.75 percentage point over its last three meetings of 2025.[10] In January two officials, Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller, still wanted another cut.[6]

    The US and Israeli strikes on Iran that began on February 28 changed the picture.[11] By April the statement said inflation was elevated partly because of higher global energy prices. Three Reserve Bank presidents objected to keeping language that leaned toward future cuts.[8] By July the same three wanted a hike.[1]

    Waller later said the labor market stabilized in the first half of 2026 while progress on inflation stalled, partly because the Middle East conflict drove energy prices very high.[12] In September the Committee raised rates unanimously.[2]

    Where things stand

    The latest data before the October meeting:

    • Inflation. PCE prices rose 3.4% in the year to August, or 3.0% excluding food and energy.[13] Consumer prices (CPI) rose 3.4% over the same period.[14]
    • Jobs. Payrolls rose 29,000 in September and unemployment was 4.2%.[15]
    • Growth. The economy grew at a 2.2% annual rate in the second quarter.[16]

    In September the median official projected 3.7% PCE inflation for 2026, falling to 2.0% by 2029.[17] The September minutes said most participants expected another increase would likely be appropriate by year-end.[4] The arguments for moving sooner or waiting are laid out in the rate-path debate.

    Upcoming dates

    • October 27-28. FOMC meeting.[5]
    • October 29. BEA’s next PCE inflation release.[18]
    • December 8-9. Final meeting of 2026, with new economic projections.[5]

    Timeline

    14 confirmed

    1. confirmed

      Waller anticipates additional hikes, with flexible timing[26][27]

      He said futures implied an 85% chance of at least one hike by December as of October 7.

    2. confirmed

      September minutes show most officials expect another hike by year-end[4][25]

    3. confirmed

      Vice Chair Jefferson says judgment on next steps may take more time[24]

    4. confirmed

      Governor Barr says further adjustments are likely needed[23]

    5. confirmed

      Fed raises rates a quarter point to 3.75-4.00%[2][3]

      The vote was 12-0. The Committee said the move would support a timelier return to 2% inflation.

    6. confirmed

      Projections point to one more hike in 2026[19][17]

      The median rate projection for end-2026 rose to 4.1% from 3.8% in June. Officials projected 3.7% PCE inflation for 2026.

    7. confirmed

      Warsh says forward guidance has "overstayed its welcome"[22]

    8. confirmed

      Fed holds; three officials dissent in favour of a hike[1]

      Hammack, Kashkari and Logan preferred a quarter-point increase. The vote was 9-3.

    9. confirmed

      First meeting under Warsh; unanimous hold and a new closing line[9]

      The rewritten statement ends "The Committee will deliver price stability."

    10. confirmed

      Kevin Warsh takes office as Fed Chairman[21]

    11. confirmed

      Fed holds in 8-4 vote; three officials object to easing bias[8]

      Miran wanted a cut. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan backed the hold but opposed language signalling future cuts. The statement cited higher global energy prices.

    12. confirmed

      Fed holds; flags uncertainty from the Middle East[7][11]

      The vote was 11-1, with Miran preferring a cut. The meeting came three weeks after US and Israeli strikes on Iran began.

    13. confirmed

      Fed holds at 3.50-3.75%; Miran and Waller dissent for a cut[6]

      The vote was 10-2. The statement said unemployment had shown signs of stabilizing and inflation remained somewhat elevated.

    14. confirmed

      Third straight cut takes the range to 3.50-3.75%[10]

      The Fed cut a total of 0.75 percentage point from September to December 2025.

    Questions readers ask

    What is the Fed interest rate right now?

    Since September 17, 2026 the target range for the federal funds rate has been 3.75% to 4.00%, after a quarter-point increase on September 16.[2]

    Did the Fed raise rates in 2026?

    Yes, once so far. It held at 3.50-3.75% from January to July and raised the range by 0.25 percentage point on September 16, its first increase since July 2023.[1][2][3]

    When is the next Fed meeting?

    October 27-28, 2026, followed by December 8-9, which also brings new economic projections.[5]

    Will the Fed hike again in 2026?

    Nobody knows yet. The September minutes said most participants judged another increase would likely be appropriate by year-end, but decisions depend on incoming data.[4]

    Why did the Fed raise rates?

    Inflation stayed elevated, at 3.4% on the PCE measure in the year to August, while the labor market held steady. Officials cited higher energy prices and AI-related investment as inflation pressures.[13][28]

    Sources

    Each numbered claim is a statement we checked against the sources listed with it. Status shows how well established it is.

    1. [1]

      On July 29, 2026 the FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% by a 9-3 vote; Hammack, Kashkari and Logan preferred a quarter-point increase. confirmedas of 2026-07-29

    2. [2]

      On September 16, 2026 the FOMC unanimously raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75-4.00%, saying the move would support a timelier return to 2% inflation. confirmedas of 2026-09-16

    3. [3]

      Before September 2026, the Fed's most recent rate increase was in July 2023, when it raised the target range to 5.25-5.5%. confirmedas of 2026-10-06

    4. [4]

      The September 2026 minutes said most participants judged another rate increase would likely be appropriate by year-end, while stressing that decisions depend on incoming data. confirmedas of 2026-10-07

    5. [5]

      The FOMC's 2026 meetings were scheduled for January 27-28, March 17-18, April 28-29, June 16-17, July 28-29, September 15-16, October 27-28 and December 8-9, with economic projections at the March, June, September and December meetings. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    6. [6]

      On January 28, 2026 the FOMC held the target range at 3.50-3.75% by a 10-2 vote; Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller preferred a quarter-point cut. confirmedas of 2026-01-28

    7. [7]

      On March 18, 2026 the FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% by an 11-1 vote, with Miran preferring a cut, and said the implications of Middle East developments were uncertain. confirmedas of 2026-03-18

    8. [8]

      On April 29, 2026 the FOMC held rates by an 8-4 vote; Miran wanted a cut, while Hammack, Kashkari and Logan supported the hold but objected to the statement's easing bias. The statement cited higher global energy prices. confirmedas of 2026-04-29

    9. [9]

      On June 17, 2026, at the first FOMC meeting after Kevin Warsh became Chairman, the Committee held rates at 3.50-3.75% by a 12-0 vote; its statement ended "The Committee will deliver price stability." confirmedas of 2026-06-17

    10. [10]

      The Fed cut rates by a total of 75 basis points over three meetings from September to December 2025, ending at a 3.50-3.75% target range. confirmedas of 2025-12-10

    11. [11]

      The United States and Israel began strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, and Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas. confirmedas of 2026-04-08

    12. [12]

      Waller said the 2025 cuts were insurance against a slowdown, but in 2026 the labor market stabilized while inflation progress stalled, partly because Middle East conflict drove energy prices higher. confirmedas of 2026-10-08

    13. [13]

      The PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.4% in the year to August 2026; excluding food and energy it rose 3.0%. confirmedas of 2026-09-30

    14. [14]

      US consumer prices (CPI-U) rose 0.4% in August 2026 and 3.4% over 12 months, with gasoline accounting for over a third of the monthly increase. confirmedas of 2026-09-11

    15. [15]

      US nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 in September 2026 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. confirmedas of 2026-10-02

    16. [16]

      US real GDP grew at a 2.2% annual rate in the second quarter of 2026, after 2.5% in the first quarter. confirmedas of 2026-09-25

    17. [17]

      The September 2026 median projections were 3.7% PCE inflation and 3.4% core PCE inflation for 2026, 2.3% real GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate, with inflation projected to reach 2.0% by 2029. confirmedas of 2026-09-16

    18. [18]

      BEA released August 2026 PCE data on September 30 and scheduled the next release for October 29, 2026. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    19. [19]

      In September 2026 the median FOMC participant projected the federal funds rate at 4.1% at end-2026, 4.1% at end-2027, 3.9% in 2028, 3.6% in 2029 and 3.2% in the longer run, up from a June median of 3.8% for end-2026. confirmedas of 2026-09-16

    20. [20]

      Governor Waller said 16 of the 18 participants' September 2026 projections showed at least one more rate hike in 2026, and four of them showed two. confirmedas of 2026-10-08

    21. [21]

      Kevin Warsh took office as Fed Chairman on May 22, 2026 for a four-year term ending May 21, 2030, and also chairs the FOMC; he was previously a governor from 2006 to 2011. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    22. [22]

      In his August 2026 Jackson Hole speech, Chairman Warsh said regular forward guidance had "overstayed its welcome" and should be limited in normal times. confirmedas of 2026-08-28

    23. [23]

      Governor Barr said on September 29, 2026 that in his base case further policy adjustments are likely needed to bring inflation to target in a timely way. confirmedas of 2026-09-29

    24. [24]

      Vice Chair Jefferson said on October 1, 2026 that future adjustments should depend on the data and that, with yields rising further since September, policymakers' judgment may take more time. confirmedas of 2026-10-01

    25. [25]

      Many participants described the September hike as insurance against persistently above-target inflation, while a number saw it as warranted by their central forecasts. confirmedas of 2026-10-07

    26. [26]

      On October 8, 2026 Governor Waller said that if data come in as expected he anticipates additional hikes, but they need not come at consecutive meetings. confirmedas of 2026-10-08

    27. [27]

      Waller said futures prices on October 7, 2026 implied an 85% chance of at least one hike by the December meeting and nearly 80% odds of at least two hikes by March 2027. confirmedas of 2026-10-07

    28. [28]

      FOMC participants cited higher crude oil and fuel prices from geopolitical developments and surging AI-related investment as sources of inflation pressure in September 2026. confirmedas of 2026-10-07

    Revision history (1)
    1. Page created with all 2026 decisions through the September meeting and its minutes.

    Created Oct 10, 2026. Last reviewed by an editor on Oct 10, 2026. Next scheduled review: Oct 29, 2026.

    Cite this page

    "Fed interest rate decisions 2026: every FOMC meeting tracked." ContentLora, updated Oct 10, 2026. https://contentlora.com/events/fed-interest-rate-decisions-2026

    Spotted an error? Suggest a correction or emailcorrections@contentlora.com.

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