Skip to content
ContentLora

    Tip: press / anywhere to search.

    ● Developing story

    US stock market 2026 tracker: S&P 500 milestones and sell-offs

    The S&P 500 fell about 9% from late January to a 2026 low of 6,343.72 on March 30 after the US-Israeli war with Iran began. It then recovered to a record close of 7,818.93 on October 6.[1][2][3] As of October 9 it stood at 7,811.54, about 14% above its 2025 close, even as the Fed raised rates and 10-year Treasury yields topped 5.3%.[4][5][6]

    Editor reviewedStrict sourcingUpdated Markets and tradingWorld affairs

    What we know

    • The S&P 500's record close is 7,818.93, set on October 6, 2026[3]
    • It closed at 7,811.54 on October 9, about 14.1% above the 2025 close[4]
    • Its lowest 2026 close was 6,343.72 on March 30, about 9.1% below January 27[1]
    • The New York Fed's markets desk said 2026 equity gains came entirely from earnings, with P/E multiples lower[16]
    • The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.19% to 5.31% between January 2 and October 5[6]
    • The Fed raised its target range to 3.75-4.00% on September 16[5]

    What we don't know yet

    • Whether the Fed raises rates again at its October 27-28 or December 8-9 meeting, and how stocks respond
    • Whether earnings growth, especially at AI-linked companies, can keep offsetting higher bond yields
    • How the Middle East conflict and oil prices evolve
    • How narrow market leadership by AI-linked stocks affects the index if those stocks fall
    Story status

    Story status

    State
    developing
    Started
    2026-01-02
    Timeline entries
    20
    Last entry

    Timeline data (JSON)

    This tracker records dated S&P 500 closing levels, milestones and sell-offs in 2026, with the drivers that sources reported at the time. Closing values come from S&P Dow Jones Indices data published by the St. Louis Fed’s FRED database.[7] It is updated as markets move. Every level is dated and none is a “live” quote. This page is not financial advice and makes no predictions.

    The year so far

    The s-and-p-500 began 2026 at 6,845.50, its 2025 closing level.[8] It closed at 6,978.60 on January 27.[9] The United States and Israel began strikes on Iran on February 28, and Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.[2] By March 27 the index was 8.74% below its late-January peak, and CNN identified rising oil prices as the key factor.[10] It bottomed at 6,343.72 on March 30, about 9.1% below the January 27 close.[1]

    A two-week ceasefire announced on April 8 sent the index up more than 2% that day.[11] It closed above 7,000 for the first time on April 15 and above 7,500 on May 14.[12][13]

    On June 5 it fell about 2.6%, its worst day since October 2025. Technology stocks sold off, and a strong May jobs report raised expectations of a Fed rate hike.[14] The index recovered to close above 7,700 on August 4.[15] It set a record close of 7,818.93 on October 6, 2026.[3] On October 9 it closed at 7,811.54, about 14.1% above its 2025 close.[4]

    What drove it

    Oil and the Iran war. The war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices up. On March 27 an investment officer quoted by CNN said stocks were falling as oil rose.[2][10] The ceasefire rally showed the reverse effect.[11]

    Earnings and AI. The New York Fed’s markets desk told the FOMC in September that the year’s rise in stock prices came entirely from strong actual and expected corporate earnings. Price-to-earnings multiples had declined.[16] Companies that benefit directly from AI infrastructure spending outperformed. CNBC described the October record as led by a narrow group of AI-linked stocks.[17]

    Rates and yields. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75-4.00% on September 16, 2026.[5] The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.19% on January 2 to 5.31% on October 5, then eased to 5.24% by October 9.[6] The Fed’s markets desk linked part of the rise in yields to heavy borrowing to fund AI infrastructure.[18] Many Fed officials nonetheless judged in September that financial conditions still supported growth.[19] The rate story is tracked in detail in the Fed decisions tracker.

    Economic backdrop

    • Inflation. Consumer prices rose 3.4% in the year to August. Gasoline accounted for over a third of the monthly increase.[20] The Fed’s preferred PCE measure was also up 3.4%, or 3.0% excluding food and energy.[21]
    • Jobs. Payrolls rose 29,000 in September, with unemployment at 4.2%.[22]
    • Growth. Real GDP grew at a 2.2% annual rate in the second quarter.[23]

    How to read this page

    Levels are index points at the market close. Percentage changes are calculated from those closes. The headline S&P 500 excludes dividends.[24] By the SEC’s definition, a bear market generally means a fall of 20% or more in a broad index. The largest 2026 decline, about 9%, was well short of that.[25][1] For background, see the explainer on how indexes work.

    Timeline

    20 confirmed

    1. confirmed

      S&P 500 closes at 7,811.54[7][4]

      About 14.1% above its 2025 close.

    2. confirmed

      Fed minutes show most officials expect another hike by year-end[31]

    3. confirmed

      Record close of 7,818.93, first above 7,800[3][17]

      The index also hit a record intraday high of 7,844.52 as the 10-year yield eased.

    4. confirmed

      10-year Treasury yield reaches 5.31%[6]

    5. confirmed

      September jobs report shows 29,000 jobs added, 4.2% unemployment[22]

    6. confirmed

      Fed raises rates to 3.75-4.00%[5][30]

      The S&P 500 closed at 7,551.81 on the day and at 7,637.76 the next day.

    7. confirmed

      August CPI shows 3.4% annual inflation[20]

    8. confirmed

      Close of 7,798.99, the high until October[29]

    9. confirmed

      First close above 7,700[15]

    10. confirmed

      Fed holds; three officials dissent for a hike[28]

    11. confirmed

      Fed holds rates at Warsh's first meeting[27]

    12. confirmed

      Worst day since October 2025 on tech sell-off and hike fears[14][26]

      The S&P 500 fell about 2.6% after a strong May jobs report raised expectations of a Fed rate hike.

    13. confirmed

      First close above 7,500[13]

    14. confirmed

      First close above 7,000[12]

    15. confirmed

      Ceasefire rally lifts the S&P 500 more than 2%[11]

      The index closed at 6,782.81 after a two-week US-Iran ceasefire was announced. US crude futures fell about 16.5%.

    16. confirmed

      2026 low close of 6,343.72[1]

      About 9.1% below the January 27 close.

    17. confirmed

      S&P 500 falls 1.67% as oil hits war high[10]

      The index closed at 6,368.85, 8.74% below its late-January peak, as Brent crude settled at $112.57 a barrel.

    18. confirmed

      US and Israel begin strikes on Iran; Strait of Hormuz effectively closed[2]

    19. confirmed

      Index closes at 6,978.60, its high before the war sell-off[9]

    20. confirmed

      S&P 500 ends 2025 at 6,845.50[8]

    Questions readers ask

    How is the stock market doing in 2026?

    As of October 9, 2026 the S&P 500 closed at 7,811.54, about 14.1% above its 2025 close. It set a record close of 7,818.93 on October 6.[7][4][3]

    What was the biggest drop in 2026?

    From its January 27 close to its March 30 low the S&P 500 fell about 9.1%, after the war with Iran began. On June 5 it fell about 2.6%, its worst day since October 2025.[1][14]

    Did the S&P 500 enter a bear market in 2026?

    No. A bear market is generally a fall of 20% or more in a broad index, and the S&P 500's largest 2026 decline was about 9%.[25][1]

    Why have stocks risen despite higher interest rates?

    The New York Fed's markets desk told policymakers in September that the 2026 gain came entirely from strong actual and expected earnings, while price-to-earnings multiples fell. AI-infrastructure companies outperformed.[16][17]

    Sources

    Each numbered claim is a statement we checked against the sources listed with it. Status shows how well established it is.

    1. [1]

      The S&P 500's lowest close of 2026 through October 9 was 6,343.72 on March 30, about 9.1% below the January 27 close. confirmedas of 2026-10-09

    2. [2]

      The United States and Israel began strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, and Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas. confirmedas of 2026-04-08

    3. [3]

      On October 6, 2026 the S&P 500 set a record close of 7,818.93, its first close above 7,800, and a record intraday high of 7,844.52, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.27% from 5.31%. confirmedas of 2026-10-06

    4. [4]

      From its 2025 close of 6,845.50 to 7,811.54 on October 9, 2026, the S&P 500 price index rose about 14.1%. confirmedas of 2026-10-09

    5. [5]

      On September 16, 2026 the FOMC unanimously raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75-4.00%, saying the move would support a timelier return to 2% inflation. confirmedas of 2026-09-16

    6. [6]

      The 10-year Treasury par yield rose from 4.19% on January 2, 2026 to 5.31% on October 5 and stood at 5.24% on October 9. confirmedas of 2026-10-09

    7. [7]

      The S&P 500 closed at 7,811.54 on October 9, 2026. confirmedas of 2026-10-09

    8. [8]

      The S&P 500 closed 2025 at 6,845.50 on December 31, 2025. confirmedas of 2025-12-31

    9. [9]

      The S&P 500 closed at 6,978.60 on January 27, 2026, its highest close before the Iran-war sell-off; CNN described its peak as late January. confirmedas of 2026-03-27

    10. [10]

      On March 27, 2026 the S&P 500 fell 1.67% to 6,368.85, leaving it 8.74% below its late-January peak, as oil settled at its highest level since the war began (Brent at $112.57) and an investment officer quoted by CNN said stocks were moving opposite to oil. confirmedas of 2026-03-27

    11. [11]

      On April 8, 2026, after President Trump agreed to a two-week pause in attacks on Iran, the S&P 500 rose more than 2% to 6,782.81 and US crude futures fell about 16.5%. confirmedas of 2026-04-08

    12. [12]

      The S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time on April 15, 2026, at 7,022.95. confirmedas of 2026-04-15

    13. [13]

      The S&P 500 first closed above 7,500 on May 14, 2026, at 7,501.24. confirmedas of 2026-05-14

    14. [14]

      On June 5, 2026 the S&P 500 fell about 2.6%, its worst day since October 2025, as technology stocks sold off and a stronger-than-expected May jobs report (172,000 jobs) raised expectations of a Fed rate hike. confirmedas of 2026-06-05

    15. [15]

      The S&P 500 first closed above 7,700 on August 4, 2026, at 7,736.52. confirmedas of 2026-08-04

    16. [16]

      The New York Fed's markets desk told the FOMC in September 2026 that the year's rise in equity prices was entirely due to strong actual and expected earnings, while price-to-earnings multiples had declined. confirmedas of 2026-09-16

    17. [17]

      CNBC reported that the S&P 500's October record was led by chipmakers and a narrow group of AI-linked stocks, and the New York Fed's markets desk told the FOMC in September that AI-infrastructure beneficiaries had outperformed the rest of the market. confirmedas of 2026-10-07

    18. [18]

      In the period before the September 2026 FOMC meeting, 2- to 10-year Treasury yields rose about 35 basis points, which the Fed's markets desk tied partly to a higher expected policy path, strong data, geopolitics and heavy AI-related debt issuance. confirmedas of 2026-09-16

    19. [19]

      Many participants said that despite higher long-term yields, financial conditions supported growth, with equity prices up substantially in 2026 and corporate bond spreads narrow. confirmedas of 2026-10-07

    20. [20]

      US consumer prices (CPI-U) rose 0.4% in August 2026 and 3.4% over 12 months, with gasoline accounting for over a third of the monthly increase. confirmedas of 2026-09-11

    21. [21]

      The PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.4% in the year to August 2026; excluding food and energy it rose 3.0%. confirmedas of 2026-09-30

    22. [22]

      US nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 in September 2026 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. confirmedas of 2026-10-02

    23. [23]

      US real GDP grew at a 2.2% annual rate in the second quarter of 2026, after 2.5% in the first quarter. confirmedas of 2026-09-25

    24. [24]

      The headline S&P 500 level is a price index of daily closing values and does not include dividends. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    25. [25]

      The SEC's Investor.gov says a bear market generally means a broad index falling 20% or more over at least two months, and a bull market a rise of 20% or more over at least two months. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    26. [26]

      After the June 5 jobs report, strategists quoted by CNN and BNN Bloomberg said Fed rate cuts were effectively off the table for 2026. confirmedas of 2026-06-05

    27. [27]

      On June 17, 2026, at the first FOMC meeting after Kevin Warsh became Chairman, the Committee held rates at 3.50-3.75% by a 12-0 vote; its statement ended "The Committee will deliver price stability." confirmedas of 2026-06-17

    28. [28]

      On July 29, 2026 the FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% by a 9-3 vote; Hammack, Kashkari and Logan preferred a quarter-point increase. confirmedas of 2026-07-29

    29. [29]

      The S&P 500 closed at 7,798.99 on August 13, 2026, its highest close until October. confirmedas of 2026-10-05

    30. [30]

      The S&P 500 closed at 7,551.81 on September 16, 2026, the day of the Fed's rate increase, and at 7,637.76 the next day. confirmedas of 2026-09-17

    31. [31]

      The September 2026 minutes said most participants judged another rate increase would likely be appropriate by year-end, while stressing that decisions depend on incoming data. confirmedas of 2026-10-07

    Revision history (1)
    1. Page created with dated milestones through October 9, 2026.

    Created Oct 10, 2026. Last reviewed by an editor on Oct 10, 2026. Next scheduled review: Nov 10, 2026.

    Cite this page

    "US stock market 2026 tracker: S&P 500 milestones and sell-offs." ContentLora, updated Oct 10, 2026. https://contentlora.com/events/us-stock-market-2026-tracker

    Spotted an error? Suggest a correction or emailcorrections@contentlora.com.

    Keep exploring

    ☰ Contents