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    Climate science and carbon removal tracker

    As of October 2026, human-induced warming stands at about 1.37 °C and the 1.5 °C carbon budget at roughly three years of emissions, while carbon removal is growing fast from a tiny base of about 2 million tonnes a year of novel removal.[1][2][3] The biggest open threads are the IPCC's report timeline, due to be taken up at a session scheduled for 12–16 October; the STRATOS direct air capture plant, now expected to operate in 2027; and whether demand for removal holds up as Microsoft buys more slowly.[4][5][6]

    Editor reviewedUpdated Climate science and carbon removalEnergy and climateScience

    What we know

    • Human-induced warming reached 1.37 °C in 2025, rising about 0.27 °C per decade[1]
    • 2023–2025 was the first three-year period averaging more than 1.5 °C (Copernicus)[7]
    • The 1.5 °C carbon budget was about 130 GtCO2 from the start of 2026, roughly three years of emissions[2]
    • Fossil CO2 emissions hit a record 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025[8]
    • The Global Tipping Points Report 2025 concluded warm-water coral reefs are passing their tipping point[31]
    • Total CDR is about 2.2 GtCO2 a year, 99.9% from forests and soils[32]
    • Microsoft held 78.5% of disclosed durable removal purchases as of April 2026[15]
    • The IPCC will publish a methodology report on carbon dioxide removal in 2027[33]
    • August 2026 tied July 2023 as the warmest month in the Copernicus record, at 1.65 °C above pre-industrial[10]
    • Occidental expects STRATOS full commissioning to begin around end-2026, with operations in 2027[5]
    • Microsoft kept signing smaller removal deals after its reported pause (BioCirc, Alt Carbon, Crew)[6]

    What we don't know yet

    • When the IPCC's AR7 working group reports will be published, and whether they will inform the 2028 global stocktake
    • Whether STRATOS starts operating in 2027 as Occidental now expects, and how close it gets to its 500,000-tonne design capacity
    • Whether Microsoft returns to large carbon removal purchases, and whether other buyers fill the gap
    • How far the 2026 El Niño pushes global temperatures in 2026 and 2027
    • Whether enhanced weathering and ocean alkalinity enhancement can be verified at commercial scale
    • When long-term human-induced warming will pass 1.5 °C
    Story status

    Story status

    State
    developing
    Started
    2015-12-12
    Timeline entries
    23
    Last entry

    Timeline data (JSON)

    Where things stand

    Warming and emissions both set records in the past year. Copernicus found 2023–2025 was the first three-year period to average more than 1.5 °C, and fossil CO2 emissions reached a projected 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025.[7][8] The 1.5 °C carbon budget was estimated at about 130 billion tonnes from the start of 2026.[2]

    The heat has continued into 2026. Copernicus found that August 2026 tied July 2023 as the warmest month in its record, at 1.65 °C above the 1850–1900 average and the first month above 1.5 °C since November 2025.[9][10] NOAA ranked September second-warmest for the month, with ocean surface temperatures at a record for the fourth month running as El Niño conditions persisted, and it expects 2026 to finish most likely as the second-warmest year.[11][12][13] The 12 months to August averaged 1.48 °C above pre-industrial in ERA5.[10]

    Carbon removal is growing but small. Novel methods removed about 2.0 million tonnes in 2025, mostly biochar and BECCS, while contracts for future removal reached 30.2 million tonnes.[3][14]

    The market after Microsoft’s pause

    Microsoft, which held 78.5% of disclosed durable purchases, was reported in April to be pausing new removal deals.[15][16] It has kept buying, but more slowly: a 650,000-tonne BioCirc biogas deal signed in May, then an Alt Carbon enhanced weathering deal and an August agreement with Crew Carbon for up to 23,602 units.[17][6] Frontier added $915 million in June, taking its commitments to $1.8 billion, and in September gave $2.1 million in grants for ocean-carbon-dioxide-removal research.[18][19]

    Direct air capture’s delays

    STRATOS, the 500,000-tonne plant in Texas, slipped again in May when phase-one commissioning revealed a component problem.[20][21] In August Occidental said full commissioning should begin around the end of 2026, with operations in 2027.[5] The two federal DAC hubs kept their awards, but only $50 million of each had been paid out as of April.[22][23] At Mammoth, climeworks plans to extend its upgrades to a full 12-container module by the end of 2026.[24]

    What to watch next

    • IPCC-65, scheduled for 12–16 October 2026. Governments said in March they want the AR7 timeline agreed at this session in Addis Ababa, and the AR7 work plan is on its provisional agenda. The session had not opened as of 10 October.[25][4][26]
    • STRATOS commissioning. Occidental expects full plant commissioning to begin around the end of 2026 and operations in 2027.[5]
    • Buyer behaviour. Whether Microsoft returns to large-volume buying, and whether Frontier’s new commitments turn into contracts.[6][18]
    • Mammoth roll-out. Whether Climeworks completes the upgrade of one full module by year-end and raises net removal beyond 675 tonnes per half-year.[24][27]
    • Ocean trials. Peer-reviewed results from the LOC-NESS alkalinity trial, which WHOI says will quantify part of the CO2 uptake.[28]
    • Annual indicators. WMO’s State of the Global Climate and the Indicators of Global Climate Change study, published in March and June 2026 for 2025, will update the warming and budget numbers.[29][1]
    • IPCC review. Expert review of the Working Group II first draft runs until 4 December 2026.[30]

    Timeline

    19 confirmed4 reported

    1. confirmed

      IPCC's 65th session scheduled to open in Addis Ababa[4][47]

      Scheduled; it had not opened as of 10 October. Governments said in March they want the AR7 timeline agreed at this session.

    2. confirmed

      IPCC opens expert review of AR7 Working Group II first draft[30]

    3. confirmed

      NOAA ranks September 2026 second-warmest September as ocean records continue[11][12]

    4. confirmed

      Climeworks reports Mammoth capture doubled in upgraded units, costs halved[46][27]

    5. confirmed

      Beccs Stockholm foundations completed[45]

    6. confirmed

      Frontier funds four ocean alkalinity enhancement research projects[19]

    7. confirmed

      August 2026 ties warmest month on record, first month above 1.5 °C since November 2025[9][10]

    8. confirmed

      Occidental pushes STRATOS operations to 2027[5]

      Full plant commissioning is expected to begin around the end of 2026.

    9. reported

      Microsoft signs Crew Carbon wastewater alkalinity deal[6]

      Its third removal deal since the reported pause, at a much slower pace than before.

    10. confirmed

      Frontier commitments reach $1.8 billion as Anthropic joins[18][43][44]

      Frontier says portfolio companies delivered about 23,000 tonnes in 2025 and forecast more than 50,000 in 2026.

    11. confirmed

      Indicators study puts human-induced warming at 1.37 °C and 1.5 °C budget at 130 GtCO2[1][2]

    12. reported

      Microsoft buys 650,000 tonnes from BioCirc weeks after reported pause[17]

    13. confirmed

      STRATOS direct air capture plant delayed again[42][21]

      Occidental said phase-one commissioning had revealed a "non-process component issue".

    14. reported

      US DAC hub funding reported preserved[22]

    15. reported

      Microsoft reported to pause new carbon removal purchases[16][15]

      First reported on 10 April; Microsoft said it may adjust the pace or volume of procurement.

    16. confirmed

      IPCC session in Bangkok ends without agreeing AR7 timeline[25][41]

    17. confirmed

      WMO reports record energy imbalance and ocean heat content[29][40]

    18. confirmed

      First EPA-permitted ocean alkalinity trial reports no measurable harm to marine life[28][39]

      Preliminary results from WHOI's August 2025 LOC-NESS trial in the Gulf of Maine.

    19. confirmed

      2025 confirmed as second or third warmest year; 2023–2025 average tops 1.5 °C in ERA5[38][7]

    20. confirmed

      Global Carbon Budget projects record fossil CO2 emissions for 2025[8][37]

      38.1 billion tonnes, up 1.1%, leaving about 170 billion tonnes for 1.5 °C.

    21. confirmed

      Attribution study finds 11 extra hot days a year since the Paris Agreement[36]

    22. confirmed

      Frontier buyers sign $31.3 million ocean alkalinity deal with Planetary[35]

      More than 115,000 tonnes of removal to be delivered between 2026 and 2030.

    23. confirmed

      Climeworks switches on Mammoth, the largest direct air capture plant[34]

      Designed for up to 36,000 tonnes of CO2 a year, about ten times the earlier Orca plant.

    Sources

    Each numbered claim is a statement we checked against the sources listed with it. Status shows how well established it is.

    1. [1]

      The Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025 study estimated human-induced warming at 1.37 °C above 1850–1900 in 2025, rising at about 0.27 °C per decade over 2016–2025. confirmedas of 2026-06-11

    2. [2]

      The Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025 study put the central estimate of the remaining carbon budget for keeping warming below 1.5 °C at 130 billion tonnes of CO2 from the start of 2026, enough for about three years of current emissions. confirmedas of 2026-06-11

    3. [3]

      Removal from novel methods grew from 1.4 million tonnes of CO2 in 2023 to 2.0 million tonnes in 2025. confirmedas of 2026-06-01

    4. [4]

      The IPCC's 65th plenary session is scheduled for 12–16 October 2026 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. confirmedas of 2026-10-08

    5. [5]

      On 6 August 2026 Occidental CEO Richard Jackson said repair and commissioning of STRATOS trains 3 and 4 was progressing and that full plant commissioning was expected to begin around the end of 2026, with the plant transitioning to operations in 2027 (company statement). confirmedas of 2026-08-06

    6. [6]

      In August 2026 Microsoft signed a deal with Crew Carbon for up to 23,602 removal units from wastewater alkalinity enhancement, its third removal deal since reports that it was adjusting the pace of purchases, after BioCirc (650,000 tonnes) and enhanced weathering firm Alt Carbon (36,920 tonnes); DatacenterDynamics said its purchasing cadence had dropped significantly in 2026. reportedas of 2026-08-05

    7. [7]

      According to Copernicus, 2023–2025 was the first three-year period whose average temperature exceeded 1.5 °C above the 1850–1900 level. confirmedas of 2026-01-14

    8. [8]

      The Global Carbon Budget 2025 projected record fossil CO2 emissions of 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, up 1.1% on 2024. confirmedas of 2025-11-13

    9. [9]

      Copernicus found that August 2026 was the warmest August on record globally and tied with July 2023 as the warmest month in its record, and that summer 2026 matched 2024 as the joint-warmest boreal summer. confirmedas of 2026-08-31

    10. [10]

      August 2026 was 1.65 °C above the 1850–1900 average in the ERA5 record, the first month above 1.5 °C since November 2025, and the 12 months to August 2026 averaged 1.48 °C above pre-industrial. confirmedas of 2026-08-31

    11. [11]

      NOAA ranked September 2026 as the second-warmest September on record, 1.33 °C above the 20th-century average and behind only 2023. confirmedas of 2026-10-09

    12. [12]

      NOAA found the global ocean surface temperature departure set a record for a fourth consecutive month in September 2026, the highest for any month on record, with persistent El Niño conditions driving record warmth in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. confirmedas of 2026-10-09

    13. [13]

      NOAA said January–September 2026 was the second-warmest such period on record, behind 2024, and that 2026 will very likely rank among the five warmest years, most probably second. confirmedas of 2026-10-09

    14. [14]

      Contracted volumes of novel CDR reached 30.2 million tonnes in 2025, almost four times 2024, led by BECCS at 20.8 million tonnes; most novel credits are still ex ante, meaning the removal will happen in the future. confirmedas of 2026-06-01

    15. [15]

      Microsoft accounted for 78.5% of all disclosed durable carbon removal tonnes purchased as of April 2026, according to CDR.fyi. confirmedas of 2026-06-12

    16. [16]

      In April 2026 Heatmap News and Bloomberg reported that Microsoft was pausing future carbon removal purchases; Microsoft said it may "adjust the pace or volume" of its procurement. confirmedas of 2026-04-16

    17. [17]

      In May 2026, weeks after the reported pause, Microsoft agreed to buy 650,000 tonnes of carbon removal credits from BioCirc, which captures CO2 at Danish biogas plants and stores it offshore; Microsoft's chief sustainability officer said its carbon removal programme had not ended. confirmedas of 2026-05-20

    18. [18]

      In June 2026 Frontier announced $915 million in new commitments, bringing its total to $1.8 billion of permanent carbon removal by 2040, and Anthropic joined as a buyer. confirmedas of 2026-06-17

    19. [19]

      On 3 September 2026 Frontier awarded $2.1 million in grants to the University of St Andrews, the University of Cambridge, [C]Worthy and Submarine Scientific to tackle technical hurdles in scaling ocean alkalinity enhancement. confirmedas of 2026-09-03

    20. [20]

      Occidental's 1PointFive STRATOS plant in the Texas Permian Basin is designed to capture up to 500,000 tonnes of CO2 a year, with Class VI permits for three wells to store about 722,000 tonnes a year in saline formations. confirmedas of 2026-03-03

    21. [21]

      Occidental said on its first-quarter 2026 call that STRATOS's second construction phase was complete but that phase-one commissioning had revealed a "non-process component issue". confirmedas of 2026-05-12

    22. [22]

      In April 2026 Carbon Herald reported that the US Department of Energy had kept funding for the two large DAC hubs, Project Cypress in Louisiana (a Heirloom, Climeworks and Battelle partnership) and the South Texas DAC Hub (1PointFive/Occidental), after earlier signals they could be cancelled. reportedas of 2026-04-17

    23. [23]

      Only an initial $50 million tranche had been disbursed to each of the two DAC hubs as of April 2026, against awards of $500 million for the South Texas DAC Hub and $550 million for Project Cypress. reportedas of 2026-04-20

    24. [24]

      Climeworks says it will extend the new sorbent and mechanical upgrades to all 12 collector containers in one Mammoth plant module by the end of 2026 and begin testing its next-generation technology at Mammoth in early 2027. reportedas of 2026-09-10· forecast

    25. [25]

      At its 64th session in Bangkok, which closed on 27 March 2026, the IPCC made no formal decision on the timeline of its Seventh Assessment Report, though governments said they want it agreed at the next session. confirmedas of 2026-03-27

    26. [26]

      The provisional agenda for the IPCC's 65th session, issued on 10 August 2026, includes the work plan of the Seventh Assessment Report and the IPCC budget for 2026–2029. confirmedas of 2026-08-10

    27. [27]

      Mammoth produced 675 tonnes of net CO2 removal in the first half of 2026, compared with 119 tonnes in the first half of 2025. confirmedas of 2026-09-10

    28. [28]

      Preliminary LOC-NESS results released in February 2026 showed the surface ocean taking up carbon from the atmosphere and no measurable impact on monitored ocean life. WHOI says part of the CO2 uptake will be quantified in upcoming peer-reviewed publications. confirmedas of 2026-02-25

    29. [29]

      WMO's State of the Global Climate 2025 reported that Earth's energy imbalance, which has increased since its observational record began in 1960, reached a new high in 2025. confirmedas of 2026-03-23

    30. [30]

      Expert review of the first draft of the IPCC's AR7 Working Group II report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability runs from 9 October to 4 December 2026. The IPCC says expert review is the first of multiple review stages foreseen for every IPCC report. confirmedas of 2026-10-07

    31. [31]

      The Global Tipping Points Report 2025 concluded that warm-water coral reefs are passing their thermal tipping point, with a central threshold estimate of 1.2 °C (range 1–1.5 °C), making it the first Earth system tipping point reached. reportedas of 2025-10-10· interpretation

    32. [32]

      Total carbon removal is about 2.2 billion tonnes of CO2 a year, around 5% of gross CO2 emissions; conventional methods provide 99.9% and novel methods about 2 million tonnes, growing about 40% a year. confirmedas of 2026-06-01

    33. [33]

      In October 2025 IPCC member governments agreed the scientific content of a 2027 Methodology Report on Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage. confirmedas of 2026-03-27

    34. [34]

      Climeworks' Mammoth plant at Hellisheiði, Iceland started operations on 8 May 2024, with 12 of its 72 collector containers installed, and has a nameplate capacity of up to 36,000 tonnes of CO2 a year, about ten times its predecessor Orca. confirmedas of 2024-05-08

    35. [35]

      In August 2025 Frontier buyers signed a $31.3 million offtake with Planetary to remove more than 115,000 tonnes of CO2 between 2026 and 2030 through ocean alkalinity enhancement, starting at Tufts Cove, Nova Scotia. confirmedas of 2025-08-26

    36. [36]

      A 2025 World Weather Attribution and Climate Central analysis found the world now has on average 11 more hot days per year from the 0.3 °C of warming since 2015, rising to 57 extra hot days a year at 2.6 °C of warming. confirmedas of 2025-10-16

    37. [37]

      The Global Carbon Budget 2025 put the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C at 170 billion tonnes of CO2, about four years of emissions at 2025 levels. confirmedas of 2025-11-13

    38. [38]

      WMO's consolidation of eight datasets put 2025 at 1.44 °C (±0.13 °C) above the 1850–1900 average, the second or third warmest year on record depending on the dataset. confirmedas of 2026-01-14

    39. [39]

      WHOI's LOC-NESS project ran the first US EPA-permitted ocean alkalinity enhancement field trial in August 2025 in the Gulf of Maine's Wilkinson Basin, adding purified sodium hydroxide and a tracer dye to surface waters; the permit was approved in April 2025. confirmedas of 2026-02-25

    40. [40]

      Ocean heat content in the upper 2,000 metres reached its highest level since records began in 1960, according to WMO. confirmedas of 2026-03-23

    41. [41]

      Carbon Brief and Third World Network reported that governments are split over whether the AR7 working group reports should come out before or after the second global stocktake that concludes in 2028, with China, India, Russia and Saudi Arabia among those favouring later publication. confirmedas of 2026-04-02

    42. [42]

      In May 2026 Occidental said STRATOS, first planned to operate by the end of 2024, had hit an unexpected delay from component issues after its core process units performed as expected in testing. E&E News noted the plant is designed for 500,000 tonnes a year, against 36,000 tonnes for the largest DAC plant then operating. confirmedas of 2026-05-07

    43. [43]

      As of June 2026 Frontier had contracted more than 1.8 million tonnes of carbon removal across 53 projects, worth $698 million. confirmedas of 2026-06-23

    44. [44]

      Frontier says seven of its portfolio companies delivered about 23,000 tonnes of removal in 2025, roughly double the year before, and that its portfolio companies forecast more than 50,000 tonnes in 2026 (self-reported). confirmedas of 2026-06-17

    45. [45]

      Stockholm Exergi reported in September 2026 that the foundation of Beccs Stockholm was complete and the plant was rising above ground; it expects 7.83 million tonnes of CO2e removed in the first ten years. confirmedas of 2026-09-04

    46. [46]

      On 10 September 2026 Climeworks said sorbent and plant upgrades had more than doubled CO2 capture in upgraded collector containers at Mammoth and cut operating costs per tonne by more than 50%. confirmedas of 2026-09-10

    47. [47]

      The IPCC-65 opening session is scheduled for 12 October 2026 at the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute in Addis Ababa, in a session hosted by the UN Economic Commission for Africa and Ethiopia; apart from the opening, the plenary meetings are closed to the media. confirmedas of 2026-10-08

    Revision history (2)
    1. Page created.
    2. Refresh: added 2026 temperature records, STRATOS's move to 2027, Microsoft's post-pause deals, Frontier's ocean grants and IPCC-65 logistics; corrected the Frontier announcement date to 17 June.

    Created Oct 10, 2026. Last reviewed by an editor on Oct 10, 2026. Next scheduled review: Oct 17, 2026.

    Cite this page

    "Climate science and carbon removal tracker." ContentLora, updated Oct 10, 2026. https://contentlora.com/events/climate-carbon-removal-tracker

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