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    Oil prices 2026 tracker: dated moves and their causes

    Oil prices in 2026 have been driven mainly by the war that began on 28 February and the resulting disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.[1] The Brent spot price rose from $71.32 per barrel on 27 February to $138 on 7 April, fell to $68.53 on 2 July after a US-Iran memorandum, and climbed back to $125.44 by 6 October as attacks on export routes continued.[2][3][4][5]

    Editor reviewedStrict sourcingUpdated Markets and tradingWorld affairsTech policy

    What we know

    • The conflict began on 28 February 2026 and impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz[1]
    • About 20 million barrels per day, roughly a quarter of seaborne oil trade, passed through Hormuz in 2025[28]
    • Brent's 2026 spot high so far is $138 per barrel, on 7 April[3]
    • EIA estimates Gulf crude shut-ins peaked at 10.9 million b/d in May and were 4.8 million b/d in September[15]
    • The IEA estimates observed global inventories fell 507 million barrels from February to August[29]
    • About 325 million barrels of the IEA's March emergency release had been delivered by 7 October[30]
    • As of 6 October, Brent spot was $125.44 and WTI spot was $96.24[5]

    What we don't know yet

    • When, and how fully, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to pre-war levels
    • Whether US-Iran negotiations will produce a lasting settlement
    • How much the G7's 2 October release of 100 million barrels will ease diesel and crude prices; EIA's October forecast does not include it
    • Whether further attacks will hit Gulf export infrastructure, such as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline
    • How quickly shut-in Gulf production can be restored once export routes reopen
    Story status

    Story status

    State
    developing
    Started
    2026-01-02
    Timeline entries
    24
    Last entry

    Timeline data (JSON)

    This tracker records dated oil price moves in 2026 and the events behind them. It uses EIA daily spot prices and reports from EIA, the IEA, OPEC and the G7.[5][6][7][8] Prices are spot assessments on the stated date, not live quotes. They can differ sharply from futures prices quoted elsewhere.[9] Nothing here is financial advice.

    Where prices stand

    In EIA’s daily data, the most recent available as of 10 October 2026, Brent spot was $125.44 per barrel on 6 October and WTI was $96.24.[5] The weekly US average for regular gasoline was $4.354 per gallon on 5 October, down 11.1 cents from a week earlier. Diesel averaged $6.199.[10] EIA’s October outlook, which does not include the G7’s 2 October release, forecasts Brent at $105 in the fourth quarter.[11][12]

    Phase 1: the Hormuz shock (March to May)

    Before the war, EIA expected oversupply to push Brent down to an average of $58 in 2026.[13] After the conflict began on 28 February, exports through the Strait of Hormuz fell below 10% of pre-conflict levels.[1][14] Gulf producers had to shut in output once local storage filled. EIA estimates the shut-ins peaked at 10.9 million barrels per day in May.[15] Brent rose about 65% in March and reached $138 on 7 April.[16][3] IEA members responded with a 400-million-barrel emergency stock release, the largest in the agency’s history.[17]

    Phase 2: the memorandum dip (June to early July)

    Prices fell in May as demand dropped and reports of a US-Iran deal circulated.[18] The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on 18 June.[19] Brent averaged $85 in June and fell to $68.53 on 2 July, below its late-February level.[20][4]

    Phase 3: renewed disruption (August to October)

    Transits through Hormuz stayed severely constrained in August, and EIA raised its shut-in estimates.[21] In September, attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline halted a key bypass route for a time. EIA estimated the pipeline had carried more than 5 million barrels per day.[22] Brent reached $131 on 15 September and averaged $114 for the month.[23] Diesel became the tightest part of the market. The IEA said US diesel passed $200 per barrel in early September, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries added to the shortfall.[24][25] Governments responded with more stock releases: a 40-million-barrel US SPR exchange on 29 September and a G7 agreement on 2 October to release 100 million barrels.[26][8]

    For background, see the oil prices crash course, Brent, WTI and OPEC+. The outlook analysis compares the forecasts of EIA, the IEA and OPEC.[27] For US interest rates and stocks, see our coverage of the Federal Reserve.

    Timeline

    24 confirmed

    1. confirmed

      IEA members back faster stock releases, prioritising diesel[30]

    2. confirmed

      EIA raises its Q4 Brent forecast to $105[11][5]

      Brent spot was $125.44 and WTI $96.24 that day.

    3. confirmed

      US gasoline averages $4.354 a gallon, diesel $6.199[10]

    4. confirmed

      OPEC+ holds November targets steady[7][48]

    5. confirmed

      G7 agrees 100-million-barrel release; Brent spot at $135.51[8][47]

    6. confirmed

      US announces 40-million-barrel SPR exchange[26]

    7. confirmed

      East-West pipeline attacks lift Brent spot to $131[22][23][46]

      The pipeline partially resumed flows as of 22 September. Brent averaged $114 in September, and tanker rates hit records.

    8. confirmed

      IEA cuts 2026 demand forecast; diesel tops $200 per barrel in the US[6][24][29][45]

    9. confirmed

      EIA raises shut-in estimates as Hormuz constraints persist[21][44]

      Brent averaged $91 in August, $7 above July.

    10. confirmed

      Seven OPEC+ countries agree 188,000 b/d August increase[43]

    11. confirmed

      Brent falls to $68.53, below its pre-war level[4]

    12. confirmed

      US and Iran sign memorandum to end the conflict[19][20]

      Brent averaged $85 in June, down $32 from April.

    13. confirmed

      Shut-ins peak; prices fall on demand loss and deal reports[15][18][42]

    14. confirmed

      UAE leaves OPEC[41]

    15. confirmed

      Temporary ceasefire eases prices; April shut-ins reach 10.5 million b/d[38][39][40]

      US net exports of crude and products hit a record 5.8 million b/d in April.

    16. confirmed

      Brent spot hits 2026 high of $138[3][9]

      Dated Brent traded more than $25 above front-month futures in early April as buyers scrambled for prompt cargoes.

    17. confirmed

      Brent posts its largest monthly rise on record[16][36][37]

      Brent averaged $103 in March; EIA estimated 7.5 million b/d of Gulf crude was shut in. The Brent-WTI spread averaged $12.

    18. confirmed

      IEA members agree record 400-million-barrel stock release[17][14]

      The IEA said Hormuz exports were below 10% of pre-conflict levels.

    19. confirmed

      Brent settles at $94, up about 50% on the year[35]

    20. confirmed

      Eight OPEC+ countries agree a 206,000 b/d April increase[34]

    21. confirmed

      War begins; Hormuz traffic collapses[1][28][33]

      The Dallas Fed estimated a full halt to Gulf exports would remove close to 20% of global oil supply.

    22. confirmed

      Last pre-war close, Brent at $71.32[2][13]

      In February EIA had forecast a 2026 Brent average of $58, expecting supply to exceed demand.

    23. confirmed

      Brent averages $67 in January on weather and Iran tensions[32]

    24. confirmed

      Brent starts the year near $62[31]

      EIA spot data show Brent at $61.98 and WTI at $57.21 per barrel.

    Questions readers ask

    What is the oil price today?

    ContentLora reports dated prices rather than live quotes. In EIA's daily data, the latest available as of 10 October 2026, the Brent spot price was $125.44 per barrel and WTI was $96.24 on 6 October 2026.[5]

    Why did oil prices rise so much in 2026?

    The conflict that began on 28 February 2026 impeded flows through the Strait of Hormuz. About 20 million barrels per day passed through the strait in 2025, and Gulf producers had to shut in up to 10.9 million barrels per day of crude.[1][28][15]

    What was the highest oil price in 2026?

    The Brent spot price reached $138 per barrel on 7 April 2026, according to EIA.[3]

    Why did prices fall in June and rise again in September?

    Prices fell after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum on 18 June. They rose again as Hormuz transits stayed constrained and attacks hit Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline in September.[19][21][22]

    What are governments doing about high oil prices?

    IEA members agreed a 400-million-barrel emergency release in March 2026, the US announced a 40-million-barrel SPR exchange on 29 September, and the G7 agreed a further 100-million-barrel release on 2 October.[17][26][8]

    Sources

    Each numbered claim is a statement we checked against the sources listed with it. Status shows how well established it is.

    1. [1]

      The Middle East conflict that began on 28 February 2026, involving Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other, impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. confirmedas of 2026-03-20

    2. [2]

      On 27 February 2026, the last trading day before the conflict began, the Brent spot price was $71.32 per barrel and WTI was $66.96. confirmedas of 2026-02-27

    3. [3]

      Brent reached $138 per barrel on 7 April 2026, its 2026 high to date, and averaged $117 in April as the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz tightened supply. confirmedas of 2026-04-30

    4. [4]

      The Brent spot price fell to $68.53 per barrel on 2 July 2026, below its pre-war level of late February. confirmedas of 2026-07-02

    5. [5]

      As of 6 October 2026, the latest day in EIA's daily data, the Brent spot price was $125.44 per barrel and the WTI spot price was $96.24. confirmedas of 2026-10-06

    6. [6]

      The IEA's September 2026 Oil Market Report forecast world oil demand will fall by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, with losses concentrated in middle distillates and petrochemical feedstocks, and recover by 2.6 million in 2027. confirmedas of 2026-09-11· forecast

    7. [7]

      On 4 October 2026 seven OPEC+ countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) decided to keep November 2026 required production at September 2026 levels, with the next meeting on 1 November. confirmedas of 2026-10-04

    8. [8]

      On 2 October 2026 G7 leaders agreed a coordinated release through the IEA of 100 million barrels over four months, including a frontloaded diesel release in the first 20 days, and coordinated refinery maintenance. confirmedas of 2026-10-02

    9. [9]

      In early April 2026 the Dated Brent spot price rose to a premium of more than $25 per barrel over the front-month Brent futures contract, which EIA attributed to extreme short-term tightness after the Strait of Hormuz closure. confirmedas of 2026-04-24

    10. [10]

      As of 5 October 2026 the US average retail price of regular gasoline was $4.354 per gallon, down 11.1 cents from a week earlier and $1.23 above a year earlier, and on-highway diesel was $6.199. confirmedas of 2026-10-05

      • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update · U.S. Energy Information Administration · 2026-10-06 · U.S. Regular Gasoline Prices and U.S. On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices tables, 10/05/26 (retrieved 2026-10-10)
    11. [11]

      EIA's October 2026 outlook forecasts Brent will average $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, $14 higher than its September forecast, and $84 in 2027. confirmedas of 2026-10-06· forecast

    12. [12]

      EIA's October 2026 forecast, finalised on 1 October, does not account for additional supply from the G7's 2 October announcement. confirmedas of 2026-10-06

    13. [13]

      In its February 2026 outlook, before the Middle East conflict, EIA forecast Brent would average $58 per barrel in 2026 and $53 in 2027 as global production exceeded demand. confirmedas of 2026-02-28· forecast

    14. [14]

      On 11 March 2026 the IEA said crude and product exports through the Strait of Hormuz were below 10% of pre-conflict levels, forcing producers to shut in output. confirmedas of 2026-03-11

    15. [15]

      EIA estimates Middle East crude production shut-ins peaked at 10.9 million barrels per day in May 2026, fell to 5.8 million in August and 4.8 million in September. confirmedas of 2026-10-06

    16. [16]

      The World Bank said Brent rose about 65% ($46 per barrel) by the end of March 2026, its largest monthly rise on record, and called the Hormuz closure the largest oil market disruption in history. confirmedas of 2026-03-31

    17. [17]

      On 11 March 2026 the IEA's 32 member countries agreed to make 400 million barrels of emergency oil stocks available, the largest release in the agency's history and its sixth collective action. confirmedas of 2026-03-11

    18. [18]

      EIA said Brent fell in May 2026 after reductions in oil demand and reports of a possible US-Iran agreement. confirmedas of 2026-06-30

    19. [19]

      On 18 June 2026 the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the conflict and open the Strait of Hormuz. confirmedas of 2026-07-31

    20. [20]

      Brent averaged $85 per barrel in June 2026, down $22 from May and $32 from April. confirmedas of 2026-06-30

    21. [21]

      In August 2026 EIA raised its estimates of Middle East shut-ins because of continued severe constraints on Strait of Hormuz transits. confirmedas of 2026-08-11

    22. [22]

      Attacks in September 2026 on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which EIA estimated had carried more than 5 million barrels per day of exports via Yanbu, temporarily halted flows; the pipeline partially resumed flows as of 22 September. confirmedas of 2026-10-06

    23. [23]

      Brent reached $131 per barrel on 15 September 2026 and averaged $114 in September, $23 higher than August. confirmedas of 2026-10-06

    24. [24]

      The IEA said US diesel prices passed $200 per barrel in early September 2026, 94% above pre-war levels, and that tightness was most acute in refined products. confirmedas of 2026-09-11

    25. [25]

      The IEA said intensified Ukrainian attacks disrupted Russia's refining system and nearly halted its product exports, compounding diesel losses from the Gulf. confirmedas of 2026-09-11

    26. [26]

      On 29 September 2026 the United States announced exchanges of 40 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. confirmedas of 2026-10-06

    27. [27]

      The IEF put 2026 demand at 105.8 million barrels per day under OPEC, 102.6 million under EIA and 102.4 million under the IEA, a 3.4 million barrel-per-day gap, with 2027 levels ranging from 105.0 to 108.2 million. confirmedas of 2026-09-14· forecast

    28. [28]

      An average of 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and products, about 25% of world seaborne oil trade, transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025. confirmedas of 2026-03-11

    29. [29]

      The IEA estimated global observed oil inventories fell by 507 million barrels from February to August 2026, an average draw of 2.8 million barrels per day. confirmedas of 2026-09-11

    30. [30]

      On 7 October 2026 IEA member governments backed accelerating stock releases and prioritising diesel; about 325 million barrels had been released under the March 2026 collective action, and members still held about 1.1 billion barrels of public emergency stocks. confirmedas of 2026-10-07

    31. [31]

      The Brent spot price was $61.98 per barrel on 2 January 2026, and the WTI spot price was $57.21. confirmedas of 2026-01-02

    32. [32]

      Brent averaged $67 per barrel in January 2026, the highest since September 2025, as weather disrupted supply and tensions with Iran rose. confirmedas of 2026-01-31

    33. [33]

      The Dallas Fed estimated that a complete stop to Gulf oil exports removes close to 20% of global oil supply, about 80% of which normally goes to Asia, compared with about 4% to 6% in the 1973, 1979, 1980 and 1990 disruptions, and called it the first-ever closure of the Strait. confirmedas of 2026-03-20

    34. [34]

      On 1 March 2026 eight OPEC+ countries, including the UAE, agreed to resume unwinding 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts from April 2023, with a 206,000 barrel-per-day increase for April 2026. confirmedas of 2026-03-01

    35. [35]

      Brent settled at $94 per barrel on 9 March 2026, up about 50% from the start of the year and the highest since September 2023. confirmedas of 2026-03-09

    36. [36]

      Brent averaged $103 per barrel in March 2026, and EIA estimated that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain shut in 7.5 million barrels per day of crude output that month. confirmedas of 2026-04-07

    37. [37]

      The Brent-WTI spread averaged $12 per barrel in March 2026 because Brent was more exposed to higher shipping costs and reduced Middle East flows to Asia. confirmedas of 2026-04-07

    38. [38]

      The World Bank said oil prices eased somewhat in early April 2026 after a temporary ceasefire was announced, and afterwards tracked uncertainty over US-Iran negotiations. confirmedas of 2026-04-30

    39. [39]

      EIA estimated Gulf producers shut in 10.5 million barrels per day of crude production in April 2026. confirmedas of 2026-04-30

    40. [40]

      US crude and petroleum product net exports reached a record 5.8 million barrels per day in April 2026 as buyers turned to US supply. confirmedas of 2026-06-30

    41. [41]

      The United Arab Emirates left OPEC effective 1 May 2026; EIA said the exit cut its forecast of OPEC spare capacity in 2027 from 3.8 to 2.5 million barrels per day. confirmedas of 2026-05-31

    42. [42]

      In June 2026 EIA said high fuel prices, reduced fuel availability and government initiatives had lowered oil demand, and forecast a 2026 decline in global consumption. confirmedas of 2026-06-30

    43. [43]

      On 5 July 2026 seven OPEC+ countries, no longer including the UAE, agreed a 188,000 barrel-per-day production adjustment for August 2026. confirmedas of 2026-07-05

    44. [44]

      Brent averaged $91 per barrel in August 2026, $7 higher than July, as global inventories fell by an estimated 400 million barrels year to date. confirmedas of 2026-09-09

    45. [45]

      The IEA reported that North Sea Dated averaged $91.00 per barrel in August 2026 before surging to $113.48 on 9 September, with backwardation at extreme levels. confirmedas of 2026-09-11

    46. [46]

      EIA said tanker rates reached record levels in September 2026, reflecting higher insurance costs and longer routes, adding to delivered crude prices and the risk premium. confirmedas of 2026-10-06

    47. [47]

      The Brent spot price was $135.51 per barrel on 2 October 2026, while the WTI spot price was $97.89. confirmedas of 2026-10-02

    48. [48]

      OPEC+'s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee said in August and October 2026 that attacks on energy infrastructure and disruption of maritime routes increase market volatility. confirmedas of 2026-10-04

    Revision history (1)
    1. Page created with timeline through 7 October 2026.

    Created Oct 10, 2026. Last reviewed by an editor on Oct 10, 2026. Next scheduled review: Nov 10, 2026.

    Cite this page

    "Oil prices 2026 tracker: dated moves and their causes." ContentLora, updated Oct 10, 2026. https://contentlora.com/events/oil-prices-2026-tracker

    Spotted an error? Suggest a correction or emailcorrections@contentlora.com.

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