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    Quantum computing frontier tracker

    This tracker follows the race to useful quantum computers, from Google's 2024 below-threshold error correction to DARPA moving six teams into its final hardware-verification stage in October 2026.[1][2] As of 10 October 2026, logical qubits number in the dozens and advantage claims remain contested.[3][4]

    Editor reviewedUpdated Quantum computingComputingPhysics

    What we know

    • Error correction that improves with code size was first shown on superconducting hardware (Google Willow, 2024).[1]
    • Neutral atoms crossed the threshold in a 448-atom architecture with all key fault-tolerance elements.[5]
    • Quantinuum reported up to 48 error-corrected logical qubits on its 98-qubit Helios.[3]
    • IBM targets a 200-logical-qubit fault-tolerant machine, Starling, by 2029.[18]
    • Six teams are in DARPA QBI Stage C: Atom Computing, Diraq, IBM, IonQ, Microsoft, PsiQuantum.[2]
    • DARPA says it increasingly expects a utility-scale quantum computer by 2033, but not which approach.[7]
    • One of IBM's July 2026 advantage claims was reproduced classically in a preprint.[4]
    • Estimates of qubits needed to break RSA and elliptic-curve encryption fell sharply in 2025-2026.[15]

    What we don't know yet

    • Whether any of IBM's other July 2026 advantage claims will survive classical challenge.
    • Whether Microsoft can produce unambiguous evidence of topological qubits during DARPA Stage C.
    • Which modality will first run a useful algorithm on fault-tolerant logical qubits.
    • Whether IBM's Kookaburra module and IonQ's 256-qubit system arrive on their 2026 schedules; neither had been reported delivered by 10 October 2026.
    • Why Quantinuum and QuEra were not in DARPA's October 2026 Stage C group, and whether more teams will advance.
    Story status

    Story status

    State
    developing
    Started
    2019-10-23
    Timeline entries
    24
    Last entry

    Timeline data (JSON)

    Where things stand

    As of 10 October 2026 the field has moved from proving that error correction can work to scaling it. Google showed below-threshold error correction on superconducting qubits in 2024, and Harvard, MIT and QuEra did the same with a 448-atom neutral-atom architecture in 2025.[1][5] Logical-qubit counts reached the dozens in 2026.[3][6] DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative now has six teams in its final stage, and DARPA says it increasingly expects someone to build a utility-scale machine by 2033.[2][7] Classical hardware matters too: error correction needs fast decoding, and Quantinuum uses NVIDIA‘s CUDA-Q platform for it on Helios.[8]

    What to watch next

    • IBM’s end-2026 targets. IBM said it expected verified quantum advantage by the end of 2026 and planned its Kookaburra module, the first to combine quantum memory and logic, for 2026.[9][10] Watch whether the remaining July 2026 claims withstand classical challenge.[4]
    • DARPA Stage C. Stage C moves “from plans to proof”, with government scrutiny of hardware from Atom Computing, Diraq, IBM, IonQ, Microsoft and PsiQuantum.[2] Results from DARPA’s new Stage A round, with proposals due on 30 September 2026, may bring new entrants.[11]
    • Microsoft’s topological qubits. After the June 2026 Nature critique, any new evidence from Microsoft will be closely examined.[12]
    • IonQ’s 256-qubit system. IonQ’s roadmap promised 256 physical qubits at 99.99% accuracy in 2026.[13]
    • Cryptographic resource estimates. Estimates for breaking RSA and elliptic-curve cryptography fell sharply in 2025 and 2026; further reductions would sharpen the case for moving to post-quantum cryptography.[14][15][16]
    • Neutral-atom scaling. Infleqtion targets 100 logical qubits by 2028, and Caltech’s 6,100-atom array has yet to be used for entangled computation.[6][17]

    How this tracker is maintained

    Single-source company or preprint results are marked “reported”; claims that credible sources contest are marked “disputed”. Results confirmed by a company’s own primary publication are marked “confirmed” but remain company-reported.[3] For what falling resource estimates mean for encryption, see how quantum computers break encryption.

    Timeline

    18 confirmed3 reported3 disputed

    1. confirmed

      DARPA moves Atom Computing, Diraq, IBM and IonQ to QBI Stage C[2]

    2. reported

      Infleqtion reports 30 entangled logical qubits on neutral atoms[6]

    3. reported

      Preprint reproduces IBM-Chicago experiment on 256 GPUs[4]

    4. disputed

      IBM and partners claim quantum advantage[45][46]

    5. confirmed

      Google reports reinforcement-learning control of error correction[43][44]

      An agent retuned thousands of control parameters during computation, improving logical stability 3.5-fold on Willow.

    6. disputed

      Nature publishes critique of Microsoft's Majorana claims[12]

    7. confirmed

      Quandela joins DARPA QBI Stage A (May 2026)[42]

      DARPA gives the month (May 2026) but not the day; QBI had evaluated more than 20 companies by October 2026.

    8. confirmed

      Google estimate for breaking elliptic-curve crypto falls below 1,200 logical qubits[15][41]

    9. confirmed

      Quantinuum reports 48 error-corrected logical qubits[3][39][40]

      Preprint posted 25 February and company blog 4 March; up to 94 error-detected logical qubits from 98 physical qubits, with some benchmarks only partially fault-tolerant (company-reported).

    10. confirmed

      Google demonstrates dynamic surface code circuits on Willow[37][38]

      Hexagonal, walking and iSWAP circuits; a three-coupler hexagonal layout matched the static code's error suppression.

    11. confirmed

      IBM unveils Nighthawk and Loon; Harvard-MIT-QuEra 448-atom result[35][36][5]

    12. confirmed

      Eleven companies enter DARPA QBI Stage B[34]

    13. confirmed

      Quantinuum launches 98-qubit Helios[32][33]

    14. confirmed

      Google's Quantum Echoes claims verifiable advantage[30][31]

    15. reported

      IonQ reports 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity[29]

    16. confirmed

      Caltech traps 6,100 neutral-atom qubits[17]

    17. confirmed

      IBM sets 2029 target for fault-tolerant Starling[18][28]

    18. confirmed

      IonQ agrees to buy Oxford Ionics for $1.075 billion[27]

    19. confirmed

      RSA-2048 estimate drops below a million noisy qubits[14][26]

    20. confirmed

      USTC reports 105-qubit Zuchongzhi 3.0 sampling result[25]

    21. disputed

      Microsoft announces Majorana 1 topological chip[23][24]

      Nature's peer-review file said the accompanying paper was not evidence of Majorana zero modes.

    22. confirmed

      DARPA moves Microsoft and PsiQuantum to US2QC final phase[22]

    23. confirmed

      Google's Willow shows below-threshold error correction[1][21]

      Logical error rate halved each time the surface code grew from 3x3 to 7x7 on the 105-qubit chip.

    24. confirmed

      Google's Sycamore makes the first quantum advantage claim[19][20]

      A 54-qubit chip completed a sampling task in 200 seconds that Google estimated would take a supercomputer 10,000 years. The tracker starts here.

    Questions readers ask

    What is the most important quantum computing milestone of 2026 so far?

    There is no single one, but DARPA moving four more teams into its final hardware-verification stage on 7 October 2026 sets the field's agenda for the next phase.[2]

    Has anyone shown a useful quantum advantage?

    Not uncontested. IBM and partners claimed advantage in July 2026, but one claim was reproduced classically in an August 2026 preprint.[46][4]

    How many logical qubits exist today?

    Dozens. Quantinuum reported up to 48 error-corrected logical qubits and Infleqtion reported 30 entangled logical qubits in 2026.[3][6]

    Sources

    Each numbered claim is a statement we checked against the sources listed with it. Status shows how well established it is.

    1. [1]

      Google reported that as it scaled Willow's encoded qubit grids from 3x3 to 5x5 to 7x7, the logical error rate halved at each step, which it called the first below-threshold error correction. confirmedas of 2024-12-09

    2. [2]

      On 7 October 2026 DARPA advanced Atom Computing, Diraq, IBM and IonQ to QBI Stage C, joining Microsoft and PsiQuantum, which entered from the US2QC pilot. confirmedas of 2026-10-07

    3. [3]

      In March 2026 Quantinuum researchers reported computations with up to 94 error-detected and 48 error-corrected logical qubits on Helios, using iceberg and concatenated codes, with logical gate errors around one in ten thousand - better than the physical gates. confirmedas of 2026-03-10

    4. [4]

      An August 2026 preprint reported classically reproducing all 2,051 amplitude batches of IBM's 70-qubit doped Clifford sampling experiment in 37.3 minutes on 256 NVIDIA H100 GPUs, with results compatible with IBM's fidelity bound. reportedas of 2026-08-13

    5. [5]

      In November 2025 Harvard, MIT and QuEra researchers reported in Nature an architecture using up to 448 rubidium-atom qubits that combined the essential elements of scalable error-corrected computation and suppressed errors below the threshold. confirmedas of 2025-11-12

    6. [6]

      On 24 September 2026 Infleqtion reported entangling 30 logical qubits encoded in 80 physical neutral-atom qubits on its Sqale system, in a circuit of about 1,000 physical operations, and said it targets 100 logical qubits by 2028. reportedas of 2026-09-24

    7. [7]

      In October 2026 QBI's managing director said DARPA increasingly expects someone to build a utility-scale quantum computer by 2033, but does not yet know which team or technical approach will get there. confirmedas of 2026-10-07

    8. [8]

      At the Helios launch Quantinuum said it would integrate NVIDIA GB200 systems with Helios through NVIDIA NVQLink and switch to NVIDIA accelerated computing, using its Guppy language with the NVIDIA CUDA-Q platform for real-time error correction. confirmedas of 2025-11-05

    9. [9]

      IBM said in November 2025 that it expected verified quantum advantage by the end of 2026 and launched an open quantum advantage tracker with partners to monitor and test claims. confirmedas of 2025-11-12

    10. [10]

      IBM planned three intermediate processors on the way to Starling - Loon (2025) to test architecture components, Kookaburra (2026) as the first module combining quantum memory and logic, and Cockatoo (2027) to link modules. confirmedas of 2025-06-10

    11. [11]

      In March 2026 DARPA opened a new QBI Stage A solicitation for additional teams, with full proposals due on 30 September 2026. confirmedas of 2026-03-10

    12. [12]

      On 24 June 2026 Nature published a critique by a University of St Andrews physicist arguing that Microsoft's 2025 claims rested on coding errors and a flawed tune-up protocol, and that Microsoft presented only favourable outcomes. confirmedas of 2026-06-24

    13. [13]

      IonQ's post-merger roadmap targets 256 physical qubits at 99.99% accuracy in 2026, more than 10,000 physical qubits in 2027 and 2 million physical qubits by 2030. confirmedas of 2025-06-09

    14. [14]

      A May 2025 Google preprint estimated that a 2048-bit RSA integer could be factored in less than a week by a quantum computer with fewer than a million noisy qubits. confirmedas of 2025-05-21

    15. [15]

      In March 2026 Google researchers, in work framed around safeguarding cryptocurrency, estimated that 256-bit elliptic-curve cryptography could be broken with fewer than 1,200 logical qubits and 90 million Toffoli gates, or fewer than 500,000 physical superconducting qubits running for a few minutes, under standard hardware assumptions. confirmedas of 2026-03-31

    16. [16]

      NIST leads development of post-quantum cryptography to protect data from future quantum computers that could break widely used encryption. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    17. [17]

      In September 2025 a Caltech team reported in Nature an array of 6,100 cesium-atom qubits held by optical tweezers (one laser split into 12,000 tweezers), with superposition lasting about 13 seconds and 99.98% accuracy in manipulating individual qubits; entangling the qubits for full computations was the stated next step. confirmedas of 2025-09-24

    18. [18]

      In June 2025 IBM said it would build IBM Quantum Starling, a fault-tolerant quantum computer with 200 logical qubits able to run 100 million quantum operations, in Poughkeepsie, New York, by 2029. confirmedas of 2025-06-10

    19. [19]

      On 23 October 2019 Google reported that its 54-qubit Sycamore processor performed a target computation in 200 seconds that it estimated would take the world's fastest supercomputer 10,000 years. confirmedas of 2019-10-23

    20. [20]

      Quantum computational advantage was first claimed in 2019, and later experiments have reinforced the claim. confirmedas of 2026-09-08

    21. [21]

      Google's Willow chip, announced on 9 December 2024, has 105 superconducting qubits. confirmedas of 2024-12-09

    22. [22]

      In February 2025 DARPA selected Microsoft (topological qubits) and PsiQuantum (photonic qubits) for the final phase of its US2QC programme, evaluating whether each could build a utility-scale, error-corrected quantum computer. confirmedas of 2025-02-06

    23. [23]

      On 19 February 2025 Microsoft announced Majorana 1, an eight-qubit chip it described as the first powered by a topological core, built from an indium arsenide and aluminium "topoconductor", alongside a peer-reviewed paper in Nature. confirmedas of 2025-02-19

    24. [24]

      The Nature peer-review file for Microsoft's 2025 paper stated that its results do not represent evidence for Majorana zero modes, and the paper itself did not claim a topological qubit. confirmedas of 2025-02-25

    25. [25]

      The University of Science and Technology of China reported in Physical Review Letters in March 2025 that its 105-qubit Zuchongzhi 3.0 superconducting processor ran an 83-qubit, 32-layer random circuit sampling task it estimated at 10^15 times faster than the most powerful supercomputer. confirmedas of 2025-03-06

    26. [26]

      A 2019 estimate co-published by the same author put the requirement at 20 million noisy qubits running for eight hours to factor 2048-bit RSA. confirmedas of 2025-05-21

    27. [27]

      IonQ agreed on 9 June 2025 to acquire Oxford Ionics, a UK trapped-ion company that builds ion traps on standard semiconductor chips, for $1.075 billion, mostly in IonQ stock. confirmedas of 2025-06-09

    28. [28]

      IBM's fault-tolerance plan uses quantum low-density parity check (qLDPC) codes, which it says cut error-correction overhead by about 90 percent compared with other leading codes. confirmedas of 2025-06-10

    29. [29]

      In October 2025 IonQ reported 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity using its Electronic Qubit Control technology, which drives qubits with precision electronics instead of lasers. confirmedas of 2025-10-21

    30. [30]

      On 22 October 2025 Google reported in Nature that its Quantum Echoes (out-of-time-order correlator) algorithm ran on Willow in about two hours, a task it estimated would take 13,000 times longer on the Frontier supercomputer. confirmedas of 2025-10-22

    31. [31]

      Google called the Quantum Echoes result verifiable because its outputs are physical expectation values that another quantum computer or a natural quantum system can reproduce, unlike random bitstrings. confirmedas of 2025-10-22

    32. [32]

      Quantinuum launched its Helios trapped-ion computer commercially on 5 November 2025; it uses 98 barium-ion qubits. confirmedas of 2025-11-05

    33. [33]

      Quantinuum reports Helios two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.921% and single-qubit gate fidelity of 99.9975%, with all 98 qubits fully connected. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    34. [34]

      On 6 November 2025 DARPA moved 11 companies to QBI Stage B - Atom Computing, Diraq, IBM, IonQ, Nord Quantique, Photonic, Quantinuum, Quantum Motion, QuEra, Silicon Quantum Computing and Xanadu. confirmedas of 2025-11-06

    35. [35]

      IBM unveiled the Nighthawk processor in November 2025, with 120 qubits linked by 218 tunable couplers, allowing circuits about 30 percent more complex than its previous processors. confirmedas of 2025-11-12

    36. [36]

      IBM described its experimental Loon processor as demonstrating all the key hardware components needed for fault-tolerant quantum computing. confirmedas of 2025-11-12

    37. [37]

      In January 2026 Google reported dynamic surface code circuits that need fewer couplers and reduce correlated errors compared with static circuits, including a hexagonal variant that improved logical error rates by a factor of 2.15 as the code grew. confirmedas of 2026-01-13

    38. [38]

      Google's dynamic surface code work, published in Nature Physics, demonstrated three circuit types - hexagonal circuits that reduce the number of couplers, walking circuits that limit errors such as leakage, and iSWAP circuits that allow non-standard two-qubit gates. confirmedas of 2026-01-13

    39. [39]

      The Quantinuum preprint reports beyond-break-even performance across both fault-tolerant and partially fault-tolerant benchmarks using between 48 and 94 logical qubits. confirmedas of 2026-02-25

    40. [40]

      The March 2026 Quantinuum results were described as partially rather than fully fault-tolerant computation. confirmedas of 2026-03-10

    41. [41]

      Google said it used zero-knowledge proofs to let others verify its elliptic-curve resource estimate without publishing sensitive attack details. confirmedas of 2026-03-31

    42. [42]

      DARPA said QBI had evaluated more than 20 companies since its mid-2024 launch, that Quandela joined Stage A in May 2026, and that it expects more companies to advance to Stage C. confirmedas of 2026-10-07

    43. [43]

      In July 2026 Google reported that reinforcement-learning control, adjusting parameters during computation, improved the logical stability of its error-correcting code 3.5-fold on Willow. confirmedas of 2026-07-22

    44. [44]

      Google's July 2026 Nature paper describes a reinforcement-learning agent that learns from error-detection data to steer thousands of control parameters during a computation, instead of halting the computation to recalibrate. confirmedas of 2026-07-22

    45. [45]

      On 30 July 2026 IBM and Algorithmiq claimed quantum advantage for a simulation of heterogeneous quantum matter run on IBM's Heron processor, a problem posted on the quantum advantage tracker about eight months earlier. confirmedas of 2026-07-30

    46. [46]

      Also on 30 July 2026 IBM and the University of Chicago claimed quantum advantage using an error-detecting encoded circuit on 70 logical qubits, run in about 15 minutes, with effective logical error rates 10 times lower than physical error rates. confirmedas of 2026-07-30

    Revision history (2)
    1. Page created.
    2. Added the 2019 Sycamore starting point, Google's dynamic-circuit and reinforcement-learning results, Quandela's QBI entry, and Quantinuum's own sources (now confirmed); kept 7 October 2026 as the Stage C date per DARPA's announcement page.

    Created Oct 10, 2026. Last reviewed by an editor on Oct 10, 2026. Next scheduled review: Jan 10, 2027.

    Cite this page

    "Quantum computing frontier tracker." ContentLora, updated Oct 10, 2026. https://contentlora.com/events/quantum-computing-tracker

    Spotted an error? Suggest a correction or emailcorrections@contentlora.com.

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