Skip to content
ContentLora

    Tip: press / anywhere to search.

    ● Developing story

    Climate science and carbon removal tracker

    As of October 2026, human-induced warming stands at about 1.37 °C and the 1.5 °C carbon budget at roughly three years of emissions, while carbon removal is growing fast from a tiny base of about 2 million tonnes a year of novel removal.[1][2][3] The biggest open threads are the IPCC's report timeline, the start-up of the STRATOS direct air capture plant, and whether demand for removal survives Microsoft's pullback.[4][5][6]

    Editor reviewedUpdated Climate science and carbon removalEnergy and climateScience

    What we know

    • Human-induced warming reached 1.37 °C in 2025, rising about 0.27 °C per decade[1]
    • 2023–2025 was the first three-year period averaging more than 1.5 °C (Copernicus)[7]
    • The 1.5 °C carbon budget was about 130 GtCO2 from the start of 2026, roughly three years of emissions[2]
    • Fossil CO2 emissions hit a record 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025[8]
    • The Global Tipping Points Report 2025 concluded warm-water coral reefs are passing their tipping point[18]
    • Total CDR is about 2.2 GtCO2 a year, 99.9% from forests and soils[19]
    • Microsoft held 78.5% of disclosed durable removal purchases as of April 2026[12]
    • The IPCC will publish a methodology report on carbon dioxide removal in 2027[20]

    What we don't know yet

    • When the IPCC's AR7 working group reports will be published, and whether they will inform the 2028 global stocktake
    • When STRATOS will start operating and how close it will get to its 500,000-tonne design capacity
    • Whether Microsoft resumes large carbon removal purchases, and whether other buyers fill the gap
    • Whether enhanced weathering and ocean alkalinity enhancement can be verified at commercial scale
    • When long-term human-induced warming will pass 1.5 °C
    Story status

    Story status

    State
    developing
    Started
    2015-12-12
    Timeline entries
    17
    Last entry

    Timeline data (JSON)

    Where things stand

    Warming and emissions both set records in the past year. Copernicus found 2023–2025 was the first three-year period to average more than 1.5 °C, and fossil CO2 emissions reached a projected 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025.[7][8] The 1.5 °C carbon budget was estimated at about 130 billion tonnes from the start of 2026.[2]

    Carbon removal is growing but small. Novel methods removed about 2.0 million tonnes in 2025, mostly biochar and BECCS, while contracts for future removal reached 30.2 million tonnes.[3][9]

    What to watch next

    • IPCC-65, 12–16 October 2026. Governments said in March they want the AR7 timeline agreed at this session in Addis Ababa.[10][4]
    • STRATOS start-up. The 500,000-tonne Texas plant has no confirmed operating date after its May 2026 delay.[11][5]
    • Buyer behaviour. Whether Microsoft, which held 78.5% of disclosed durable purchases, returns to the market, and whether Frontier’s new commitments turn into contracts.[12][13]
    • Mammoth roll-out. Whether Climeworks extends its container upgrades across the plant and raises net removal beyond 675 tonnes per half-year.[14]
    • Ocean trials. Peer-reviewed results from the LOC-NESS alkalinity trial, which WHOI says will quantify part of the CO2 uptake.[15]
    • Annual indicators. WMO’s State of the Global Climate and the Indicators of Global Climate Change study, published in March and June 2026 for 2025, will update the warming and budget numbers.[16][1]
    • IPCC review. Expert review of the Working Group II first draft runs until 4 December 2026.[17]

    Timeline

    15 confirmed2 reported

    1. confirmed

      IPCC's 65th session scheduled to open in Addis Ababa[4]

      Governments said in March they want the AR7 timeline agreed at this session.

    2. confirmed

      IPCC opens expert review of AR7 Working Group II first draft[17]

    3. confirmed

      Climeworks reports Mammoth capture doubled in upgraded units, costs halved[32][14]

    4. confirmed

      Beccs Stockholm foundations completed[31]

    5. confirmed

      Frontier commitments reach $1.8 billion as Anthropic joins[13][30]

    6. confirmed

      Indicators study puts human-induced warming at 1.37 °C and 1.5 °C budget at 130 GtCO2[1][2]

    7. confirmed

      STRATOS direct air capture plant delayed again[5]

    8. reported

      US DAC hub funding reported preserved[29]

    9. reported

      Microsoft reported to pause new carbon removal purchases[6][12]

      First reported on 10 April; Microsoft said it may adjust the pace or volume of procurement.

    10. confirmed

      IPCC session in Bangkok ends without agreeing AR7 timeline[10][28]

    11. confirmed

      WMO reports record energy imbalance and ocean heat content[16][27]

    12. confirmed

      First EPA-permitted ocean alkalinity trial reports no measurable harm to marine life[15][26]

      Preliminary results from WHOI's August 2025 LOC-NESS trial in the Gulf of Maine.

    13. confirmed

      2025 confirmed as second or third warmest year; 2023–2025 average tops 1.5 °C in ERA5[25][7]

    14. confirmed

      Global Carbon Budget projects record fossil CO2 emissions for 2025[8][24]

      38.1 billion tonnes, up 1.1%, leaving about 170 billion tonnes for 1.5 °C.

    15. confirmed

      Attribution study finds 11 extra hot days a year since the Paris Agreement[23]

    16. confirmed

      Frontier buyers sign $31.3 million ocean alkalinity deal with Planetary[22]

      More than 115,000 tonnes of removal to be delivered between 2026 and 2030.

    17. confirmed

      Climeworks switches on Mammoth, the largest direct air capture plant[21]

      Designed for up to 36,000 tonnes of CO2 a year, about ten times the earlier Orca plant.

    Sources

    Each numbered claim is a statement we checked against the sources listed with it. Status shows how well established it is.

    1. [1]

      The Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025 study estimated human-induced warming at 1.37 °C above 1850–1900 in 2025, rising at about 0.27 °C per decade over 2016–2025. confirmedas of 2026-06-11

    2. [2]

      The Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025 study put the central estimate of the remaining carbon budget for keeping warming below 1.5 °C at 130 billion tonnes of CO2 from the start of 2026, enough for about three years of current emissions. confirmedas of 2026-06-11

    3. [3]

      Removal from novel methods grew from 1.4 million tonnes of CO2 in 2023 to 2.0 million tonnes in 2025. confirmedas of 2026-06-01

    4. [4]

      The IPCC's 65th plenary session is scheduled for 12–16 October 2026 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. confirmedas of 2026-10-08

    5. [5]

      In May 2026 Occidental said STRATOS, first planned to operate by the end of 2024, had hit an unexpected delay from component issues after its core process units performed as expected in testing. E&E News noted the plant is designed for 500,000 tonnes a year, against 36,000 tonnes for the largest DAC plant then operating. confirmedas of 2026-05-07

    6. [6]

      In April 2026 Heatmap News and Bloomberg reported that Microsoft was pausing future carbon removal purchases; Microsoft said it may "adjust the pace or volume" of its procurement. confirmedas of 2026-04-16

    7. [7]

      According to Copernicus, 2023–2025 was the first three-year period whose average temperature exceeded 1.5 °C above the 1850–1900 level. confirmedas of 2026-01-14

    8. [8]

      The Global Carbon Budget 2025 projected record fossil CO2 emissions of 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, up 1.1% on 2024. confirmedas of 2025-11-13

    9. [9]

      Contracted volumes of novel CDR reached 30.2 million tonnes in 2025, almost four times 2024, led by BECCS at 20.8 million tonnes; most novel credits are still ex ante, meaning the removal will happen in the future. confirmedas of 2026-06-01

    10. [10]

      At its 64th session in Bangkok, which closed on 27 March 2026, the IPCC made no formal decision on the timeline of its Seventh Assessment Report, though governments said they want it agreed at the next session. confirmedas of 2026-03-27

    11. [11]

      Occidental's 1PointFive STRATOS plant in the Texas Permian Basin is designed to capture up to 500,000 tonnes of CO2 a year, with Class VI permits for three wells to store about 722,000 tonnes a year in saline formations. confirmedas of 2026-03-03

    12. [12]

      Microsoft accounted for 78.5% of all disclosed durable carbon removal tonnes purchased as of April 2026, according to CDR.fyi. confirmedas of 2026-06-12

    13. [13]

      In June 2026 Frontier announced $915 million in new commitments, bringing its total to $1.8 billion of permanent carbon removal by 2040, and Anthropic joined as a buyer. confirmedas of 2026-06-23

    14. [14]

      Mammoth produced 675 tonnes of net CO2 removal in the first half of 2026, compared with 119 tonnes in the first half of 2025. confirmedas of 2026-09-10

    15. [15]

      Preliminary LOC-NESS results released in February 2026 showed the surface ocean taking up carbon from the atmosphere and no measurable impact on monitored ocean life. WHOI says part of the CO2 uptake will be quantified in upcoming peer-reviewed publications. confirmedas of 2026-02-25

    16. [16]

      WMO's State of the Global Climate 2025 reported that Earth's energy imbalance, which has increased since its observational record began in 1960, reached a new high in 2025. confirmedas of 2026-03-23

    17. [17]

      Expert review of the first draft of the IPCC's AR7 Working Group II report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability runs from 9 October to 4 December 2026. The IPCC says expert review is the first of multiple review stages foreseen for every IPCC report. confirmedas of 2026-10-07

    18. [18]

      The Global Tipping Points Report 2025 concluded that warm-water coral reefs are passing their thermal tipping point, with a central threshold estimate of 1.2 °C (range 1–1.5 °C), making it the first Earth system tipping point reached. reportedas of 2025-10-10· interpretation

    19. [19]

      Total carbon removal is about 2.2 billion tonnes of CO2 a year, around 5% of gross CO2 emissions; conventional methods provide 99.9% and novel methods about 2 million tonnes, growing about 40% a year. confirmedas of 2026-06-01

    20. [20]

      In October 2025 IPCC member governments agreed the scientific content of a 2027 Methodology Report on Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage. confirmedas of 2026-03-27

    21. [21]

      Climeworks' Mammoth plant at Hellisheiði, Iceland started operations on 8 May 2024, with 12 of its 72 collector containers installed, and has a nameplate capacity of up to 36,000 tonnes of CO2 a year, about ten times its predecessor Orca. confirmedas of 2024-05-08

    22. [22]

      In August 2025 Frontier buyers signed a $31.3 million offtake with Planetary to remove more than 115,000 tonnes of CO2 between 2026 and 2030 through ocean alkalinity enhancement, starting at Tufts Cove, Nova Scotia. confirmedas of 2025-08-26

    23. [23]

      A 2025 World Weather Attribution and Climate Central analysis found the world now has on average 11 more hot days per year from the 0.3 °C of warming since 2015, rising to 57 extra hot days a year at 2.6 °C of warming. confirmedas of 2025-10-16

    24. [24]

      The Global Carbon Budget 2025 put the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C at 170 billion tonnes of CO2, about four years of emissions at 2025 levels. confirmedas of 2025-11-13

    25. [25]

      WMO's consolidation of eight datasets put 2025 at 1.44 °C (±0.13 °C) above the 1850–1900 average, the second or third warmest year on record depending on the dataset. confirmedas of 2026-01-14

    26. [26]

      WHOI's LOC-NESS project ran the first US EPA-permitted ocean alkalinity enhancement field trial in August 2025 in the Gulf of Maine's Wilkinson Basin, adding purified sodium hydroxide and a tracer dye to surface waters; the permit was approved in April 2025. confirmedas of 2026-02-25

    27. [27]

      Ocean heat content in the upper 2,000 metres reached its highest level since records began in 1960, according to WMO. confirmedas of 2026-03-23

    28. [28]

      Carbon Brief and Third World Network reported that governments are split over whether the AR7 working group reports should come out before or after the second global stocktake that concludes in 2028, with China, India, Russia and Saudi Arabia among those favouring later publication. confirmedas of 2026-04-02

    29. [29]

      In April 2026 Carbon Herald reported that the US Department of Energy had kept funding for the two large DAC hubs, Project Cypress in Louisiana (a Heirloom, Climeworks and Battelle partnership) and the South Texas DAC Hub (1PointFive/Occidental), after earlier signals they could be cancelled. reportedas of 2026-04-17

    30. [30]

      As of June 2026 Frontier had contracted more than 1.8 million tonnes of carbon removal across 53 projects, worth $698 million. confirmedas of 2026-06-23

    31. [31]

      Stockholm Exergi reported in September 2026 that the foundation of Beccs Stockholm was complete and the plant was rising above ground; it expects 7.83 million tonnes of CO2e removed in the first ten years. confirmedas of 2026-09-04

    32. [32]

      On 10 September 2026 Climeworks said sorbent and plant upgrades had more than doubled CO2 capture in upgraded collector containers at Mammoth and cut operating costs per tonne by more than 50%. confirmedas of 2026-09-10

    Revision history (1)
    1. Page created.

    Created Oct 10, 2026. Last reviewed by an editor on Oct 10, 2026. Next scheduled review: Oct 17, 2026.

    Cite this page

    "Climate science and carbon removal tracker." ContentLora, updated Oct 10, 2026. https://contentlora.com/events/climate-carbon-removal-tracker

    Spotted an error? Suggest a correction or emailcorrections@contentlora.com.

    Keep exploring

    ☰ Contents