Skip to content
ContentLora

    Tip: press / anywhere to search.

    Analysis

    NFL 2026 contenders: what models and markets say about Super Bowl LXI

    After four weeks of the 2026 season, the forecasts disagree. ESPN's FPI model rates the unbeaten 49ers as clear favourites at 24.5%.[1] Betting odds reported by FOX Sports on 6 October had the 2-2 Rams on top at +650, with the 49ers at +850.[2] The Chiefs, Vikings and 49ers were the only unbeaten teams before Week 5's Sunday games.[3] These are attributed forecasts, not predictions or betting advice.

    Editor reviewedUpdated AnalysisSports
    Show:

    Four weeks into the 2026 season, there is no consensus favourite for Super Bowl LXI, which is on 14 February 2027.[4] This page sets out the dated facts, then what two kinds of forecasters say: ESPN’s Football Power Index (a statistical model) and betting markets. These are other people’s forecasts, not ours, and this is not betting advice. Records are as of 11 October 2026, before Week 5’s Sunday games; see the NFL 2026 season tracker for results and the explainer on how the NFL playoffs work.

    Where things stand

    The Chiefs, Vikings and 49ers were 4-0.[3] The Jaguars, Bills, Browns, Ravens and Raiders were 3-1 in the AFC, and the Giants, Bears and Seahawks were 3-1 in the NFC.[5] The Texans, Chargers, Dolphins and Titans were 0-4.[6] Only one team, the 1992 Chargers, has made the playoffs after starting 0-4.[7] Fourteen teams make the playoffs, and only the two No. 1 seeds get a bye.[8]

    What the model says: ESPN FPI

    As of 11 October, ESPN’s FPI gave the 49ers a 24.5% chance to win the Super Bowl. Next came the Bears (12.1%), Chiefs (12.0%), Jaguars (11.2%) and Bills (8.1%).[1] It projected the 49ers for about 13.3 wins with a 98.8% chance of reaching the playoffs.[9] San Francisco ranked second in points per game, and Brock Purdy led the league in Total QBR.[10] Chicago led the NFL in total offense despite starting backup quarterbacks after Caleb Williams’ hamstring injury.[11]

    FPI is built to predict performance for the rest of the season, so it can rate a team above or below its current record.[1] Its high rating for the Bears reflects their offensive output. That output has come with backup quarterbacks, which adds uncertainty the model may not fully capture.[11]

    What the market says: betting odds

    DraftKings odds reported by FOX Sports on 6 October had the Rams favoured at +650, then the Bills (+750), Ravens and 49ers (+850 each), Chiefs (+900) and Seahawks (+950).[2] The Rams were 2-2 after a fourth-quarter comeback in Philadelphia.[12] They were playing without Myles Garrett, who is on injured reserve after knee surgery.[13] The Chargers’ odds had lengthened from +1600 before the season to +10000.[14] The Falcons’ odds shortened from +12000 to +8000 after their Monday night win over New Orleans.[15][16]

    Odds and models can differ for structural reasons. Betting prices include the bookmaker’s margin and reflect where money is placed, while a model reflects only its inputs. The Ravens’ +850 price, for example, came before Lamar Jackson’s ankle injury ruled him out of Week 5.[2][17] Treat any single number as a snapshot.

    The competing cases

    • 49ers: strongest by the model, unbeaten, and efficient on offense.[9][10] The counterpoint is Seattle, which held them without a touchdown in both January meetings.[18]
    • Rams and Bills: favoured by the market despite the Rams’ 2-2 record. Buffalo lost its unbeaten record to New England in Week 4.[2][19]
    • Chiefs and Jaguars: Kansas City is unbeaten. Jacksonville had allowed only 53 points in four games.[20][21]
    • Seahawks: the defending champions are 3-1 and priced at +950.[22][2]

    Both forecasts will move as results come in. Week 5 includes 49ers-Seahawks and Bears-Packers, and the trade deadline is less than a month away.[18][23][24] With 13 regular-season weeks left after Week 5, a lot can change. We will update this page with fresh FPI and odds snapshots, each dated.

    Competing views

    The 49ers are the team to beat

    ESPN's FPI gives San Francisco a 24.5% Super Bowl chance and a 98.8% playoff chance, the highest of any team. The 49ers are 4-0 with the league's top Total QBR quarterback.[1][9][10][3]

    The market's favourites: Rams and Bills

    Betting odds on 6 October put the Rams (+650) and Bills (+750) ahead of every unbeaten team, despite the Rams' 2-2 record and Buffalo's Week 4 loss.[2][12][19]

    Watch the AFC: Chiefs and Jaguars

    Kansas City is 4-0 and Jacksonville has the AFC's stingiest defence by points allowed. FPI puts both at about 11-12% to win it all.[20][21][1]

    Don't write off the champions

    Defending champion Seattle is 3-1, held the 49ers without a touchdown twice in January, and sits at +950 in the market.[22][18][2][5]

    Next in the crash course

    Questions readers ask

    Who is the favourite to win Super Bowl LXI?

    It depends on the source. ESPN's FPI gave the 49ers a 24.5% chance as of 11 October 2026. DraftKings odds reported by FOX Sports on 6 October had the Rams as favourites at +650.[1][2]

    What is ESPN's FPI?

    The Football Power Index is ESPN's measure of team strength, built to predict how teams will perform for the rest of the season.[1]

    Which teams' odds have fallen the most?

    FOX Sports reported on 6 October that the 0-4 Chargers had lengthened from +1600 before the season to +10000. The Packers had drifted to +5000 and the Eagles from +1500 to +2400.[14]

    Can an 0-4 team still make the playoffs?

    Rarely. ESPN notes that only the 1992 Chargers have made the playoffs after an 0-4 start.[7]

    Is this betting advice?

    No. The page reports published odds and model outputs, with dates and sources, to show how forecasters see the season. It does not recommend any bet.[2]

    Sources

    · 24 claims from 4 publishers

    Each numbered claim is a statement we checked against the sources listed with it. Tap a number in the text to see its sources in place.

    1. [1]

      As of 11 October 2026, before Week 5's Sunday games, ESPN's Football Power Index gave the 49ers a 24.5% chance to win Super Bowl LXI, followed by the Bears (12.1%), Chiefs (12.0%), Jaguars (11.2%) and Bills (8.1%). confirmedas of 2026-10-11· forecast

    2. [2]

      Super Bowl LXI odds at DraftKings as of 6 October 2026, as reported by FOX Sports, had the Rams favoured at +650, then the Bills (+750), Ravens and 49ers (+850 each), Chiefs (+900) and Seahawks (+950). confirmedas of 2026-10-06· forecast

    3. [3]

      As of 11 October 2026, before Week 5's Sunday games, the Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers were the NFL's only unbeaten teams at 4-0. confirmedas of 2026-10-11

      • 2026 NFL League Standings · NFL.com · League standings table (W L T PCT PF PA); Vikings and 49ers rows also 4 0 0 (retrieved 2026-10-11)
    4. [4]

      Super Bowl LXI is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027 at SoFi Stadium in the Los Angeles area, broadcast by ESPN. confirmedas of 2026-10-11

    5. [5]

      As of 11 October 2026, the Jaguars, Bills, Browns, Ravens and Raiders were 3-1 in the AFC and the Giants, Bears and Seahawks were 3-1 in the NFC; after the Week 5 Thursday game the Cowboys were 2-3 and the Buccaneers 1-4. confirmedas of 2026-10-11

      • 2026 NFL League Standings · NFL.com · League standings table; other 3-1 rows as listed; Cowboys row 2 3 0 and Buccaneers row 1 4 0 (retrieved 2026-10-11)
    6. [6]

      As of 11 October 2026, the Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans were all 0-4. confirmedas of 2026-10-11

      • 2026 NFL League Standings · NFL.com · League standings table; Chargers, Dolphins and Titans rows also 0 4 0 (retrieved 2026-10-11)
    7. [7]

      According to ESPN, only one NFL team, the 1992 Chargers, has made the playoffs after starting 0-4; the 0-4 Texans and Titans meet in Nashville in Week 5. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    8. [8]

      Fourteen teams make the NFL playoffs, seven from each conference, and the No. 1 seed in each conference gets a bye through the Wild Card round. confirmedas of 2026-10-11

    9. [9]

      As of 11 October 2026, ESPN's FPI projected the 49ers for about 13.3 wins with a 98.8% chance of making the playoffs, the highest of any team. confirmedas of 2026-10-11· forecast

    10. [10]

      Entering Week 5, the 49ers ranked second in points per game (30.5) and Brock Purdy led the NFL in Total QBR (89.2), per ESPN. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    11. [11]

      The Bears were 3-1 entering Week 5 despite Caleb Williams' Week 2 hamstring injury, with wins by backup quarterbacks Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent, and led the NFL with 1,716 yards of total offense. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    12. [12]

      The Rams came back from 10 points down in the fourth quarter to beat the Eagles 24-20 in Philadelphia in Week 4. confirmedas of 2026-10-04

    13. [13]

      Rams defensive end Myles Garrett, the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year acquired from Cleveland in the offseason, had arthroscopic knee surgery in mid-September and is on injured reserve with no return timeline as of 10 October. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    14. [14]

      FOX Sports reported on 6 October 2026 that the Chargers' Super Bowl odds had lengthened from +1600 before the season to +10000, the Packers' to +5000 and the Eagles' from +1500 to +2400. confirmedas of 2026-10-06· forecast

    15. [15]

      FOX Sports reported that the Falcons' Super Bowl odds shortened from +12000 to +8000 after their Week 4 win over the Saints. confirmedas of 2026-10-06· forecast

    16. [16]

      The Falcons beat the Saints 45-24 on Monday night in Week 4, with Bijan Robinson rushing for 145 yards and two touchdowns. confirmedas of 2026-10-06

    17. [17]

      The Ravens ruled quarterback Lamar Jackson out of their Week 5 Sunday night game at Atlanta with a left ankle injury; Tyler Huntley is to start. confirmedas of 2026-10-09

    18. [18]

      The Seahawks held the 49ers without a touchdown in both January 2026 meetings, 13-3 in Week 18 and 41-6 in the divisional round, and were allowing the fifth-fewest points (18.3) per game entering Week 5. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    19. [19]

      The Patriots beat the previously unbeaten Bills 29-26 in Buffalo in Week 4. confirmedas of 2026-10-04

    20. [20]

      The Chiefs beat the Raiders 30-27 in Las Vegas in Week 4 to move to 4-0. confirmedas of 2026-10-05

    21. [21]

      As of 11 October 2026 the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) had allowed 53 points in four games, and ESPN ranked them second in scoring defense after four weeks. confirmedas of 2026-10-11

    22. [22]

      The Seattle Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13 over the New England Patriots at Levi's Stadium, and the two teams met again in the 2026 season opener. confirmedas of 2026-10-11

    23. [23]

      ESPN reported that the Bears were 1.5-point road favourites at Green Bay for Week 5, the first time they had been road favourites against the Packers since the 2006 season opener; Chicago beat Green Bay 31-27 in the January 2026 wild-card round. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    24. [24]

      ESPN reported three NFL trades in the two weeks to 10 October 2026, sending J.J. McCarthy from the Vikings to the Giants, Joey Porter Jr. from the Steelers to the Cowboys and Cam Jurgens from the Eagles to the Ravens, with the trade deadline under a month away. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    Revision history (1)
    1. Page created with FPI as of 11 October and odds as of 6 October.

    Created Oct 11, 2026. Last reviewed by an editor on Oct 11, 2026. Next scheduled review: Oct 20, 2026.

    Cite this page

    "NFL 2026 contenders: what models and markets say about Super Bowl LXI." ContentLora, updated Oct 11, 2026. https://contentlora.com/analysis/nfl-2026-contenders

    Spotted an error? Suggest a correction or emailcorrections@contentlora.com.

    ☰ Contents