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    US export controls on advanced AI chips

    Since October 7, 2022, the US Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has required licenses to export advanced computing chips and some chipmaking tools to China.[1] The rules have been tightened, loosened and rewritten several times since. In January 2026 BIS moved to case-by-case review for chips up to the level of NVIDIA's H200.[2]

    Editor reviewedStrict sourcingUpdated Tech policySemiconductorsArtificial intelligenceWorld affairs

    What we know

    • Licenses have been required for advanced AI chips and some chipmaking items bound for China since October 7, 2022.[1]
    • The January 2025 AI Diffusion Rule was rescinded in May 2025, before its compliance date.[7]
    • Since January 15, 2026, H200-class and less advanced chips get case-by-case review for China; more capable chips still face a presumption of denial.[10]
    • NVIDIA received a license in February 2026 to ship small amounts of H200s to specific China-based customers.[13]
    • As of August 2026, China had restricted licensed H200 sales; NVIDIA's H200 shipments were under 1% of its quarterly Data Center revenue.[14]
    • In September 2026 the US and China extended their trade truce, which was due to end November 10, 2026, to January 10, 2027.[23]

    What we don't know yet

    • Whether China will allow more than a fraction of the licensed H200 shipments into the country.
    • Whether BIS will formally extend the suspension of the affiliates (50% ownership) rule past November 9, 2026, as the January 10, 2027 truce extension implies.
    • Whether China's suspended October 2025 rare-earth controls stay suspended to January 10, 2027, and what a broader US-China deal would mean for chip controls.
    • Whether and when BIS will publish the replacement rule it promised when rescinding the AI Diffusion Rule.
    Story status

    Story status

    State
    developing
    Started
    2022-10-07
    Timeline entries
    16
    Last entry

    Timeline data (JSON)

    Background

    On October 7, 2022, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) began requiring licenses to export advanced computing chips, computers containing them, and certain semiconductor manufacturing items.[1] The same rule required licenses for some work by US persons that supports advanced chip production in China. It also widened license requirements for 28 Chinese entities already on the Entity List.[3] In October 2023 BIS revised the controls. It said the aim was to further restrict China’s ability to obtain technologies to modernize its military.[4] A December 2024 rule added high-bandwidth memory and more chipmaking equipment.[5]

    In January 2025 BIS issued a broader framework, the AI Diffusion Rule. It revised controls on advanced chips and added a control on the weights of certain advanced AI models.[6] On May 13, 2025, the Commerce Department said it would rescind that rule before its May 15 compliance date. It also warned industry about using Chinese AI chips, including Huawei’s Ascend line.[7][8]

    What the rules do now

    Since January 15, 2026, license applications for the NVIDIA H200, its equivalents and less advanced chips bound for China and Macau get case-by-case review instead of a presumption of denial.[2] Exporters must certify that US supply is sufficient and that foundry capacity is not diverted from US customers. They must also certify that the recipient has adequate security and that the chips pass independent testing in the United States.[9] The policy covers chips below set performance and memory-bandwidth thresholds. Shipments to China and Macau are capped at half of what goes to US customers, and other applications still face a presumption of denial.[10]

    Licensing has also involved payments to the US government. In August 2025, after licenses for NVIDIA’s H20 were granted, officials said they expected 15% or more of the revenue, but no regulation codified this.[11] In December 2025 President Trump said the US would take 25% of approved H200 sales.[12] H200s shipped under the 2026 program face a 25% tariff on import into the United States, where they are inspected before shipment.[13]

    In practice the H200 opening has produced little trade. NVIDIA said in August 2026 that China’s government had restricted sales of the H200s it was licensed to ship. It took a $0.4 billion H200 charge in the first half of fiscal 2027 and has since made only a fraction of the allowed shipments, which were less than 1% of its latest quarterly Data Center revenue.[14]

    Who is affected

    US chip designers have reported direct costs. NVIDIA took a $4.5 billion charge after a license requirement for its H20 was imposed in April 2025.[15] AMD said the same kind of requirement on its MI308 could cost up to about $800 million.[16] NVIDIA said that by early 2026 it was effectively shut out of China’s data center compute market.[17] It shipped no data center Hopper products to China in the quarter ended April 26, 2026, against $4.6 billion a year earlier.[18]

    The rules also reach beyond China. A September 2025 rule extended Entity List restrictions to companies at least 50% owned by listed parties.[19] In July 2026 BIS gave the UAE government and approved UAE companies license-free access to advanced computing items.[20]

    Export controls now reach AI models as well as chips. In June 2026 Anthropic said a US government export control directive required it to suspend all access to its Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models by foreign nationals, and that it had to disable both models for all customers to comply.[21] The frontier AI tracker follows model releases and restrictions of this kind.

    What to watch

    The suspension of the 50% affiliates rule is set to end on November 9, 2026 unless it is extended.[22] The suspension was part of a wider US-China truce. On September 23, 2026, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that truce, due to end November 10, would run until January 10, 2027, and China’s Commerce Ministry confirmed the new date on September 28.[23] A matching extension of the affiliates-rule suspension is expected. As of October 10, 2026, though, BIS had not published a Federal Register notice making it.[24]

    China’s side of the truce includes a suspension of the rare-earth export controls it announced in October 2025, originally until November 10, 2026. Trade publications reported that this suspension now runs to January 10, 2027, but one noted that China’s statement did not explicitly mention rare earths.[25]

    H200 exports are permitted in principle, but China’s restrictions have kept licensed shipments small.[14] BIS said in May 2025 that a replacement rule for the AI Diffusion Rule would follow.[7] As of August 2026, NVIDIA described that rule’s scope, timing and requirements as uncertain.[26]

    Timeline

    16 confirmed

    1. confirmed

      US and China extend their trade truce to January 10, 2027[23]

      The truce had been due to end on November 10, 2026. China's Commerce Ministry confirmed the new date on September 28.

    2. confirmed

      NVIDIA says China has restricted licensed H200 sales[14]

      NVIDIA took a $0.4 billion H200 charge and said licensed shipments were under 1% of quarterly Data Center revenue.

    3. confirmed

      UAE gets license-free access to advanced computing items for approved entities[20]

    4. confirmed

      NVIDIA reports no data center Hopper shipments to China in its latest quarter[18]

    5. confirmed

      NVIDIA discloses a license for small H200 shipments to China[13]

      The license was granted in February 2026; the date shown is when NVIDIA's annual report disclosed it.

    6. confirmed

      BIS moves H200-class chips to case-by-case review for China[2][10]

    7. confirmed

      Trump says H200 sales to approved Chinese customers will be allowed[12]

    8. confirmed

      Affiliates rule suspended for one year[22]

    9. confirmed

      Entity List restrictions extended to 50%-owned affiliates[19]

    10. confirmed

      H20 licenses granted, with officials expecting a 15% revenue share[11][27]

      NVIDIA's filing dates the licenses to August 2025 without a specific day.

    11. confirmed

      Commerce announces rescission of the AI Diffusion Rule[7][8]

    12. confirmed

      License now required for NVIDIA H20 and AMD MI308 exports to China[15][16]

      NVIDIA says it was informed in April 2025; AMD reported its assessment on April 15, 2025.

    13. confirmed

      AI Diffusion framework issued, adding controls on AI model weights[6]

    14. confirmed

      Controls extended to high-bandwidth memory and more chipmaking equipment[5]

    15. confirmed

      BIS publishes revised advanced computing controls[4]

      The revisions took effect November 17, 2023.

    16. confirmed

      BIS imposes first broad controls on advanced computing chips and chipmaking items[1][3]

      The interim final rule took effect October 7, 2022 and was published in the Federal Register on October 13.

    Questions readers ask

    When did the US start restricting AI chip exports to China?

    BIS rules requiring licenses for advanced computing chips and some chipmaking items took effect on October 7, 2022.[1]

    Can NVIDIA sell H200 chips in China?

    Since January 2026, H200-class chips get case-by-case license review, and NVIDIA got a license for small shipments in February 2026. By August 2026 China's government had restricted those sales, and NVIDIA said its licensed H200 shipments were less than 1% of its quarterly Data Center revenue.[2][13][14]

    Will the affiliates rule take effect on November 9, 2026?

    Its one-year suspension ends November 9, 2026 unless extended. The US and China extended their trade truce to January 10, 2027, which is expected to bring a matching extension, but as of October 10, 2026 BIS had not published one.[22][23][24]

    What happened to the AI Diffusion Rule?

    It was issued in January 2025, and the Commerce Department announced on May 13, 2025 that it would be rescinded, two days before compliance was due to begin.[6][7]

    Does the US government take a share of licensed chip sales?

    Officials said they expected 15% or more of revenue from licensed H20 sales, though no regulation codified it. H200s shipped under the 2026 program face a 25% tariff on import into the United States.[11][13]

    Sources

    Each numbered claim is a statement we checked against the sources listed with it. Status shows how well established it is.

    1. [1]

      A BIS interim final rule effective October 7, 2022 amended the Export Administration Regulations to control advanced computing integrated circuits, computers containing them, and certain semiconductor manufacturing items. confirmedas of 2022-10-13

    2. [2]

      A BIS rule published January 15, 2026 changed license review for the NVIDIA H200, its equivalents and less advanced chips bound for China and Macau from a presumption of denial to case-by-case review, subject to exporter certifications. confirmedas of 2026-01-15

    3. [3]

      The October 2022 rule also required a license for specific activities of US persons that support the development or production of certain integrated circuits in China, and widened license requirements for 28 Chinese entities already on the Entity List. confirmedas of 2022-10-13

    4. [4]

      In October 2023 BIS revised the 2022 advanced computing controls, effective November 17, 2023, stating that the revisions further restrict China's ability to obtain critical technologies to modernize its military. confirmedas of 2023-10-25

    5. [5]

      A BIS rule effective December 2, 2024 added controls on certain semiconductor manufacturing equipment and high-bandwidth memory, and created new foreign direct product rules aimed at advanced-node chip production. confirmedas of 2024-12-05

    6. [6]

      The January 2025 Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion interim final rule revised controls on advanced computing chips and added a new control on the model weights of certain advanced closed-weight AI models. confirmedas of 2025-01-15

    7. [7]

      On May 13, 2025 the Commerce Department announced it would rescind the AI Diffusion Rule, whose compliance requirements were due to take effect on May 15, 2025. confirmedas of 2025-05-13

    8. [8]

      Alongside the rescission, BIS issued guidance warning industry of the risks of using Chinese advanced computing chips, including specific Huawei Ascend chips. confirmedas of 2025-05-13

    9. [9]

      Under the January 2026 rule the exporter must certify sufficient US supply, no diversion of foundry capacity from US end users, adequate recipient security, and independent third-party testing in the United States. confirmedas of 2026-01-15

    10. [10]

      The January 2026 case-by-case policy covers chips with total processing performance below 21,000 and DRAM bandwidth below 6,500 GB/s, caps China and Macau shipments at 50% of US shipments of the product, and keeps a presumption of denial for other applications. confirmedas of 2026-01-15

    11. [11]

      In August 2025 the US government granted NVIDIA licenses to ship certain H20 products to some China-based customers; officials said they expected 15% or more of the revenue, but no regulation codified this. confirmedas of 2026-02-25

    12. [12]

      On December 8, 2025 President Trump said the US would allow NVIDIA to ship H200 chips to approved customers in China, with 25% of sales going to the US government. confirmedas of 2025-12-09

    13. [13]

      In February 2026 the US government granted NVIDIA a license to ship small amounts of H200 products to specific China-based customers, after inspection in the United States; such H200s face a 25% tariff on import into the US. confirmedas of 2026-02-25

    14. [14]

      In its quarterly report for the period ended July 26, 2026, NVIDIA said China's government had restricted sales of the H200s it was licensed to ship, that it had taken a $0.4 billion H200 charge in the first half of fiscal 2027, and that it had since made a fraction of the allowed shipments, accounting for less than 1% of quarterly Data Center revenue. confirmedas of 2026-08-26

    15. [15]

      In April 2025 the US government told NVIDIA that exporting its H20 chips to China requires a license; NVIDIA took a $4.5 billion charge for excess H20 inventory and purchase obligations. confirmedas of 2026-02-25

    16. [16]

      AMD disclosed on April 15, 2025 that a new US license requirement applies to exports of its MI308 products to China and could result in charges of up to about $800 million. confirmedas of 2025-04-16

    17. [17]

      NVIDIA said that at the end of fiscal 2026 it was effectively foreclosed from competing in China's data center compute market. confirmedas of 2026-02-25

    18. [18]

      NVIDIA shipped no data center Hopper products to China in the quarter ended April 26, 2026, compared with $4.6 billion a year earlier. confirmedas of 2026-05-20

    19. [19]

      A BIS interim final rule effective September 29, 2025 made any entity at least 50% owned by Entity List parties automatically subject to Entity List restrictions. confirmedas of 2025-09-30

    20. [20]

      A BIS rule effective July 10, 2026 moved the UAE into Country Group A:5 and gave the UAE government and approved UAE commercial entities license-free access to advanced computing items. confirmedas of 2026-07-14

    21. [21]

      On 12 June 2026, three days after Claude Fable 5's release, Anthropic said a US government export control directive required it to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by foreign nationals, and that it had to disable both models for all customers to ensure compliance. confirmedas of 2026-06-12

    22. [22]

      In November 2025 BIS suspended the affiliates rule for one year; the suspension is set to end November 9, 2026 unless extended. confirmedas of 2025-11-12

    23. [23]

      On September 23, 2026 US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US and China would extend their "Busan agreement" trade truce, due to end November 10, 2026, until January 10, 2027; China's Commerce Ministry said on September 28 that the trade arrangements had been extended to that date. confirmedas of 2026-09-28

    24. [24]

      As of October 10, 2026, BIS had not published a Federal Register notice extending the suspension of the affiliates rule beyond November 9, 2026, although the truce extension was expected to lead to one. confirmedas of 2026-10-10

    25. [25]

      China suspended its October 2025 expansion of rare-earth export controls until November 10, 2026 under the late-2025 US-China arrangements; trade publications reported in late September and October 2026 that the suspension would run to January 10, 2027, though one noted the Commerce Ministry's statement did not explicitly mention rare earths. reportedas of 2026-10-09

    26. [26]

      As of August 2026 NVIDIA described the scope, timing and requirements of the promised replacement for the AI Diffusion Rule as uncertain. confirmedas of 2026-08-26

    27. [27]

      NVIDIA reported about $60 million in H20 revenue under the August 2025 licenses. confirmedas of 2026-02-25

    Revision history (2)
    1. Page created.
    2. Refresh: China's restriction of licensed H200 sales (NVIDIA, August 2026), the US-China truce extension to January 10, 2027, and the pending affiliates-rule extension. Fixed two Federal Register excerpts.

    Created Oct 10, 2026. Last reviewed by an editor on Oct 10, 2026. Next scheduled review: Nov 11, 2026.

    Cite this page

    "US export controls on advanced AI chips." ContentLora, updated Oct 10, 2026. https://contentlora.com/events/us-ai-chip-export-controls

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