concept
Battery critical minerals
Also known as battery minerals, battery raw materials, energy transition minerals
Batteries depend on a handful of critical minerals, mainly lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite, whose refining is heavily concentrated in China.[1][2] Lithium prices more than doubled into early 2026, and China has repeatedly used export controls, including battery and graphite controls announced in October 2025 and suspended until November 2026.[3][4][5]
Key facts
What batteries are made of
Lithium-ion batteries need lithium in every cell, nickel and cobalt in NMC cathodes, and graphite in most anodes.[6][7] Researchers have warned that scaling battery deployment 100-fold would put great stress on supplies of lithium, nickel and cobalt.[1] Chemistry choices change the mix. LFP uses abundant iron, high-nickel NMC uses relatively little cobalt, and sodium-ion storage cells avoid cobalt and nickel entirely.[8][7][9] Flow batteries mostly use vanadium, which is hard to extract and mined mainly in Russia, China and South Africa.[10][11]
Concentration in China
The IEA says China accounted for over three quarters of the growth in refined supply of key energy minerals other than nickel.[2] The number of mineral tariff codes covered by Chinese export controls has tripled since 2023.[12] Graphite is a particular pressure point: the IEA estimates that full export controls would put over 300 billion dollars a year of downstream production at risk.[13]
Prices in 2025-2026
Lithium prices at the start of 2026 were more than twice their level a year earlier, and cobalt prices doubled too.[3] The IEA attributes the lithium surge to strong demand from energy storage combined with constrained supply.[14] Battery pack prices still fell 8% in 2025, because overcapacity, competition and cheaper LFP outweighed higher metal costs.[15][16]
Export controls and trade
On 9 October 2025 China announced controls, due to start on 8 November, on high-energy lithium-ion cells, cathode materials and precursors, graphite anodes, and related equipment and technology.[4] On 7 November 2025 it suspended them, along with related rare-earth controls, until 10 November 2026. The legal framework remains in place.[5][17] The US raised Section 301 tariffs on Chinese natural graphite and non-EV lithium-ion batteries to 25% from January 2026.[18]
Diversification and recycling
Building supply elsewhere is hard: new projects in diverse regions often cost more than incumbent suppliers.[19] Recycling could reduce the need for new mining by 25-40% by 2050 in the IEA’s pledges scenario, though average recycling rates for key minerals are only around 10% today.[20][21]
Questions readers ask
Which minerals do batteries need most?
Lithium, nickel and cobalt for cathodes and graphite for anodes. Scaling deployments 100-fold would put great stress on lithium, nickel and cobalt supply chains.[1][6]
Why does China matter so much?
China accounted for over three quarters of the growth in refined supply of key energy minerals other than nickel, and the number of mineral codes under Chinese export controls has tripled since 2023.[2][12]
What happened to lithium prices?
They more than doubled between early 2025 and early 2026, driven partly by strong demand for energy storage.[3][14]
Can supply be diversified?
It is possible but costly. The IEA notes new projects in diverse regions often cost more than incumbent suppliers.[19]
Sources
Each numbered claim is a statement we checked against the sources listed with it. Status shows how well established it is.
- [1]
The University of Washington's Clean Energy Institute notes that multiplying today's battery deployments 100-fold would strain supplies of lithium, nickel and cobalt. confirmedas of 2026-10-10
- Lithium-Ion Battery · Clean Energy Institute, University of Washington (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [2]
The IEA says China accounted for over three quarters of the growth in refined supply of key energy minerals other than nickel. confirmedas of 2026-10-10
- Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 - Executive summary · International Energy Agency (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [3]
Lithium prices at the start of 2026 were more than twice their level a year earlier, and cobalt prices also doubled over the year. confirmedas of 2026-10-10
- Global EV Outlook 2026 - Electric vehicle batteries · International Energy Agency (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [4]
On 9 October 2025 China announced export controls, due to take effect on 8 November 2025, on high-energy lithium-ion cells (300 Wh/kg and above), cathode materials and precursors, graphite anode materials, and related equipment and technology. confirmedas of 2025-10-14
- China imposes new export controls on lithium ion battery technology · ESS News (pv magazine) · 2025-10-13 (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- PRC Announces New Export Controls on Rare Earth and Battery Materials and Technology · Mayer Brown (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [5]
On 7 November 2025 China suspended the October 2025 battery and graphite anode export controls, together with related rare-earth measures, until 10 November 2026. confirmedas of 2025-11-13
- China Temporarily Suspends Export Controls on Key Raw Materials, Including Rare Earths, Lithium Batteries, and Diamonds · CIRS Group (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items · Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman · 2025-11-13 (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [6]
Graphite anodes store lithium ions by intercalation, in which the ions slot in between the two-dimensional graphene layers that make up graphite. confirmedas of 2026-10-10
- Lithium-Ion Battery · Clean Energy Institute, University of Washington (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [7]
The IEA says high-nickel chemistries use relatively small quantities of cobalt, and that together with LFP they account for the vast majority of the EV battery market. confirmedas of 2026-10-10
- Global EV Outlook 2026 - Electric vehicle batteries · International Energy Agency · Battery prices section, on high-nickel chemistries (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [8]
Polyanion cathodes such as lithium iron phosphate cut cost by using abundant metals like iron and are more thermally stable and safe, but have poor electronic conductivity and lower densities. confirmedas of 2026-10-10
- A retrospective on lithium-ion batteries (Xie and Lu, Nature Communications, 2020) · Nature Communications (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [9]
CATL's sodium-ion storage cell is cobalt-free and nickel-free and uses aluminium foil instead of copper foil. reportedas of 2026-04-20
- A closer look at CATL's new sodium-ion battery · ESS News (pv magazine) · 2026-04-20 (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [10]
The most widely used flow battery design uses vanadium in different oxidation states on its two sides. confirmedas of 2023-04-07
- Flow batteries for grid-scale energy storage · MIT News (MIT Energy Initiative) · 2023-04-07 (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [11]
Vanadium is widespread but dilute and hard to extract, production is concentrated in Russia, China and South Africa, and its prices are high and volatile. confirmedas of 2023-04-07
- Flow batteries for grid-scale energy storage · MIT News (MIT Energy Initiative) · 2023-04-07 (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [12]
The number of mineral tariff codes subject to Chinese export controls has tripled since 2023. confirmedas of 2026-10-10
- Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 - Executive summary · International Energy Agency (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [13]
The IEA estimates that full export controls on graphite would put over 300 billion US dollars a year of downstream production at risk. confirmedas of 2026-10-10
- Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 - Executive summary · International Energy Agency (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [14]
The IEA says lithium prices more than doubled amid strong demand from energy storage and constrained supply. confirmedas of 2026-10-10
- Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 - Executive summary · International Energy Agency (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [15]
BloombergNEF's 2025 survey found average lithium-ion battery pack prices fell 8% from 2024 to a record low of 108 US dollars per kilowatt-hour. confirmedas of 2025-12-09
- Lithium-Ion Battery Pack Prices Fall to $108 Per Kilowatt-Hour, Despite Rising Metal Prices · BloombergNEF · 2025-12-09 (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [16]
BloombergNEF attributed 2025 price falls to cell manufacturing overcapacity, intense competition and the shift to lower-cost LFP batteries, despite higher battery metal costs. confirmedas of 2025-12-09
- Lithium-Ion Battery Pack Prices Fall to $108 Per Kilowatt-Hour, Despite Rising Metal Prices · BloombergNEF · 2025-12-09 · Headline and key drivers (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [17]
Legal analysts note that although enforcement of China's battery export controls is on hold, the legal framework remains in place, and the US paused its own export "Affiliates Rule" until 9 November 2026 in the same deal. confirmedas of 2025-11-13
- China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items · Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman · 2025-11-13 (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- China Temporarily Suspends Export Controls on Key Raw Materials, Including Rare Earths, Lithium Batteries, and Diamonds · CIRS Group (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [18]
Under Section 301 tariff increases finalised in September 2024, US tariffs on Chinese lithium-ion EV batteries rose to 25% in 2024, and tariffs on non-EV lithium-ion batteries and natural graphite rose to 25% from 1 January 2026. confirmedas of 2024-09-24
- USTR Finalizes Action on New and Increased Section 301 Tariffs · Holland & Knight · 2024-09-16 (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- USTR Finalizes Section 301 Tariff Hikes on Chinese Imports · BDO USA · 2024-09-24 (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [19]
New mineral projects in geographically diverse regions often cost more than incumbent suppliers, which complicates investment decisions. confirmedas of 2026-10-10
- Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 - Executive summary · International Energy Agency (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [20]
The IEA estimates a successful scale-up of recycling could cut the need for new mining by 25-40% by 2050 in a scenario meeting national climate pledges. reportedas of 2024-12-01· forecast
- Recycling of Critical Minerals - Executive summary · International Energy Agency (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [21]
Under current policies, average recycling rates for key energy minerals could rise from around 10% today to close to 20% by 2040. reportedas of 2026-10-10· forecast
- Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 - Executive summary · International Energy Agency (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- [22]
CATL reported 2025 revenue of 423.7 billion yuan (up 17%), net profit of 72.2 billion yuan (up 42%) and battery shipments of 661 GWh (up 39%). confirmedas of 2026-03-10
- CATL reports record-breaking financial results in 2025, with 10 billion USD net profit · CarNewsChina · 2026-03-10 (retrieved 2026-10-10)
- CATL reports record-breaking financial results in 2025, with 10 billion USD net profit · CarNewsChina · 2026-03-10 (retrieved 2026-10-10)
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Created Oct 10, 2026. Last reviewed by an editor on Oct 10, 2026. Next scheduled review: Jan 10, 2027.
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